298
FXUS64 KOUN 242336
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
636 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 627 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
- UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY
OPPORTUNITIES FOR STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
- BRIEFLY DRIER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE ADDITIONAL STORM
CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEK.
- FIRE WEATHER POSSIBLE BEHIND THE DRYLINE THIS WEEKEND, MAINLY
ACROSS FAR WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A FRONT/REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR WAURIKA AND PAULS
VALLEY TO NORTH OF ADA, OK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY HAS
EITHER STALLED OR IS JUST DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY SOUTH. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SEVERAL CAMS SHOWING SCATTERED STORMS
DEVELOPING. THE ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IS SUFFICIENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WITH SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. LARGE/VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A RISK
FOR A FEW TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BOUNDARY WHERE THE LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD BE ENHANCED. THE STORMS AND SEVERE POTENTIAL
ARE EXPECTED TO END THIS EVENING WITH THE FA TO REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTIES THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY SINCE WHAT HAPPENS ONE DAY
COULD BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS THE DAY/NIGHT BEFORE.
SATURDAY: MODELS SHOW A POTENTIAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE/PERTURBATION
MOVING ACROSS KS/N OK IN THE BROAD WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MEANWHILE, AT THE SFC, THE BOUNDARY THAT IS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TODAY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF THE FA
SATURDAY. A DRYLINE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE ARE QUESTIONS ON
WHERE THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE WHEN DEVELOPMENT BEGINS. MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT SHOWING ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE DRYLINE BUT IT
IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A STORM TO DEVELOP NEAR
THIS BOUNDARY ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ARE DEFINITELY NEAR THE
WARM FRONT. A MOIST, UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE. WITH THIS AIRMASS, SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERNS.
THERE IS ALSO A LOW POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
WARM FRONT.
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO EARLY SUNDAY ALTHOUGH THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY: ANOTHER DAY WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA ALTHOUGH SUNDAY IS A BIT MORE CONDITIONAL DUE TO A CAP, THE
AFFECTS FROM SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT ACTIVITY, AND WHETHER STORMS
ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP.
MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SUNDAY.
THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IS OUT OF PHASE WITH PEAK
DIURNAL HEATING BUT IF THIS FEATURE IS FASTER THAN MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY SHOWING, THE SHORTWAVE COULD AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT AND
PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. AT THE SFC, A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST INTO PORTIONS OF OK AND NORTH TX. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
QUESTION ON HOW FAR EAST THIS DRYLINE WILL MOVE WHICH WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON THE POTENTIAL AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS.
SFC HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT TO OVERCOME THE CAP FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BOUNDARY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A MOIST,
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE EAST OF THE DRYLINE
WHICH WILL MAKE SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. LARGE/VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. HOWEVER, A STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET SUNDAY EVENING WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AS SURFACE MOISTURE IS SHUNTED
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BEHIND A PACIFIC FRONT AND OUR AREA IS
POSITIONED WITHIN A ZONE OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND SUNDAY'S WAVE.
HOWEVER, WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW BEING MAINTAINED OVER THE REGION
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS (AND SEVERE WEATHER) COULD
RETURN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK AS SURFACE
MOISTURE LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
WARE
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH ABOUT 2Z.
SATELLITE INDICATES SOME ATTEMPTS FOR CONVECTION ALONG A SURFACE
BOUNDARY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA, BUT STORMS OR SHOWERS APPEAR
UNLIKELY. MVFR CEILINGS AROUND OKC AND OUN MAY DECREASE FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS EVENING, BUT AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT, IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT SEVERAL TAF
SITES. HEATING ON SATURDAY WILL LIFT CEILING HEIGHTS TO MVFR WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT A FEW TERMINAL LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH BETTER STORMS CHANCES AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 58 83 61 87 / 10 30 20 10
HOBART OK 57 89 58 92 / 0 20 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 60 94 63 95 / 10 20 0 0
GAGE OK 52 83 53 88 / 10 20 20 20
PONCA CITY OK 54 77 59 79 / 0 50 50 40
DURANT OK 62 87 65 86 / 20 30 50 20
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...06
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