497
FXUS64 KOUN 251746
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1246 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1224 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH A RISK FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND TORNADOES (POTENTIALLY STRONG).
- BRIEFLY DRIER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE ADDITIONAL STORM
CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEK.
- FIRE WEATHER POSSIBLE BEHIND THE DRYLINE THIS WEEKEND, MAINLY
ACROSS FAR WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS A WARM
FRONT AND DRYLINE PROVIDE POTENTIAL INITIATION SOURCES FOR
CONVECTION AMID A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AND SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
CURRENTLY MUCH OF OUR AREA IS OBSERVING LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST TO
EAST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF OUTFLOW AND A DYING COLD FRONT THAT
PASSED THROUGH YESTERDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASED WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES
WILL ENCOURAGE INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY AS
WINDS STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL OK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST OK, WITH A DIFFUSE DRYLINE EXPECTED TO BE ORIENTED
NORTH-SOUTH WEST OF I-35.
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ALOFT WILL BE RATHER NEBULOUS TODAY, AS OUR
AREA REMAINS UNDER FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A ROBUST
SHORTWAVE WELL TO THE WEST ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THAT SAID,
THERE DOES STILL APPEAR TO BE A SIGNAL IN THE MODELS FOR A SUBTLE
MID-LEVEL WAVE THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA DURING PEAK
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY PROVIDE A BIT OF A BOOST FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CAMS HAVE BEEN MORE ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT
DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AS OPPOSED TO ALONG
THE DRYLINE, BUT WITH CAPPING FORECAST TO ERODE ALONG BOTH
BOUNDARIES CANNOT RULE OUT DEVELOPMENT ALONG EITHER ZONE. THE
ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG
INSTABILITY AS UPPER 60 TO LOW 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ADVECT
NORTHWARD WITH MLCAPE OF 3000-4000 J/KG CENTERED ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT WITH STRONGLY BACKED FLOW NOTED ON MOST MODELS. STORM
MODE IS LIKELY TO BE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS INITIALLY WHICH MAY MERGE
INTO SEVERAL CLUSTERS BY MID EVENING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS WELL AS WARM
ADVECTION INCREASES WITH THE LOW- LEVEL JET. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY, STORMS WILL POSE A RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL (PERHAPS
LARGER THAN BASEBALLS) AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONALLY, A
CORRIDOR OF LOCALLY ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT, INCLUDING A RISK FOR
A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO, IS PLAUSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT MUCH OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY IS
FORECAST TO BE DRY IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE WAVE
TIMING STILL APPEARS TO BE TOO SLOW AND/OR DIRECTED TO FAR TO OUR
NORTHWEST DURING PEAK HEATING SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO PROVIDE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC LIFT. ADDITIONALLY, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE REVEAL FAIRLY STOUT CAPPING THAT MAY BE
DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME WITHOUT THIS LIFT. IF (A BIG IF) STORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP, THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR (ESPECIALLY DURING
THE EVENING), BUT OVERALL CHANCES FOR STORMS REMAIN LIMITED (<30%),
REPRESENTING A HIGHLY CONDITIONAL SETUP.
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO GET PUSHED LARGELY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA ON MONDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. VERY
LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE IS FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT. IN FACT,
WITH DRIER AIR AND INCREASED SUNSHINE MANY AREAS MAY SEE HIGHS ON
MONDAY WARMER THAN THOSE ON SUNDAY, PUSHING INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW
90S.
WARE
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
MODEL SPREAD INCREASES MID TO LATE WEEK REGARDING THE DEGREE OF
MOISTURE RECOVERY AND RELATED STORM/SEVERE CHANCES. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS A MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTION WITH MUCH
OF OUR AREA REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE. THAT
SAID, IT IS NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT FAR AWAY AND WITH
WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEING MAINTAINED OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A SHIFT BACK
NORTH TO BRING ADDITIONAL SEVERE CHANCES TO THE AREA. REGARDLESS,
MODELS DO AGREE ON THE NEXT BIGGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE
AREA FRIDAY, BRINGING INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO MUCH OF
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THEN FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
WARE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
STRATUS WILL BE BRIEFLY ERODING ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WITH TERMINAL KSPS REMAINING IN A VFR
CATEGORY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, TERMINAL KLAW MAY
DEGRADE TO AN IFR CATEGORY BY 08Z WITH STRATUS BREAKING OUT.
STRATUS WILL LINGER ACROSS OUR REMAINING TERMINALS KEEPING THEM IN
A MVFR TO PERIODS OF IFR CATEGORIES. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 21-04Z ALTHOUGH
PROBABILITIES WILL BE AT 30% ACROSS OUR TWO TERMINALS IN THE OKC
METRO (KOKC & KOUN) BUT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A TEMPO GROUP ACROSS
TERMINALS KSWO, KPNC, AND KDUA. SHOULD ANY CONVECTION DEVELOP IN
THAT TIME FRAME IT HAS A POTENTIAL OF BEING SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND A TORNADO AS THE SEVERE HAZARDS.
CURRENTLY SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST UP TO 10 KTS ALTHOUGH
EXPECTING THEM TO VEER MORE SOUTHERLY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS.
HOWEVER BETWEEN 00-06Z A COLD FRONT PUSHES PARTIALLY THROUGH OUR
AREA SHIFTING WINDS MORE NORTHERLY ACROSS TERMINALS IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA WITH WIND SPEEDS UP TO 10 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 81 62 86 68 / 30 20 10 10
HOBART OK 87 58 91 63 / 10 10 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 93 62 95 69 / 10 10 0 10
GAGE OK 83 53 89 55 / 20 30 30 10
PONCA CITY OK 78 60 78 64 / 50 50 30 30
DURANT OK 86 65 87 71 / 40 50 20 20
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...68
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