135
FXUS64 KOUN 251827
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
127 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 124 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH A RISK FOR GIANT HAIL,
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND TORNADOES (POTENTIALLY STRONG).
- BRIEFLY DRIER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE ADDITIONAL STORM
CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEK.
- FIRE WEATHER RAMPS UP ON MONDAY WITH ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
SEVERE STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GIANT HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL
BE THE MAIN IMPACT TODAY.
OUR SYNOPTIC SETUP INCLUDES A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA,
A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, AND A
DRYLINE SETTING UP IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND 70S) WILL YIELD A VERY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT (3000-4000 J/KG). MEANWHILE, LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
ENHANCED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONGLY BACKED
SURFACE FLOW. THIS MORNING'S STRATUS IS QUICKLY CLEARING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT.
MOST MODELS HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
FRONT, STRETCHING FROM NEAR CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. THERE ARE ALSO SOME HINTS AT A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OFF
THE DRYLINE IN NORTH TEXAS, THOUGH FORCING SEEMS WEAKER THERE. MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR INITIATION LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 4 AND 6PM. INITIAL
STORMS WILL BE DISCRETE, WITH A RISK FOR GIANT HAIL AND TORNADOES.
THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD FAVOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS. AS WE GO INTO THE
EVENING, EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL JET TO INCREASE AND STORMS TO GROW
MORE UPSCALE.
DAY
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION FROM SATURDAY NIGHT MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, MAINLY SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, THOUGH A FEW MODELS SHOW SHOWERS
EXPANDING ALONG THE FRONT INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. STORM
DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON APPEARS VERY CONDITIONAL (10-20%
CHANCE) WITH STOUT CAPPING AND A MISTIMED WAVE WORKING AGAINST STORM
CHANCES. THAT SAID, IF STORMS DO DEVELOP, STRONG INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ALL SEVERE HAZARDS.
MONDAY, FIRE WEATHER RETURNS WITH RH DRIVEN ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL RFTIS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL BE 15 TO 20 MPH
GUSTING TO 30 MPH FROM THE WEST / SOUTHWEST WITH RH VALUES DIPPING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. RECENT GREENUP WILL LIMIT FIRE CONCERNS IN
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. ADDITIONALLY, THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE LOOKS TO BE DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE HIGHEST ERCS IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BOTH FEATURE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
90S WITH BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
DAY
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
MODEL SPREAD INCREASES MID TO LATE WEEK REGARDING THE DEGREE OF
MOISTURE RECOVERY AND RELATED STORM/SEVERE CHANCES. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS A MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTION WITH MUCH
OF OUR AREA REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE. THAT
SAID, IT IS NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT FAR AWAY AND WITH
WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEING MAINTAINED OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A SHIFT BACK
NORTH TO BRING ADDITIONAL SEVERE CHANCES TO THE AREA. REGARDLESS,
MODELS DO AGREE ON THE NEXT BIGGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE
AREA FRIDAY, BRINGING INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO MUCH OF
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THEN FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
WARE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
STRATUS WILL BE BRIEFLY ERODING ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WITH TERMINAL KSPS REMAINING IN A VFR
CATEGORY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, TERMINAL KLAW MAY
DEGRADE TO AN IFR CATEGORY BY 08Z WITH STRATUS BREAKING OUT.
STRATUS WILL LINGER ACROSS OUR REMAINING TERMINALS KEEPING THEM IN
A MVFR TO PERIODS OF IFR CATEGORIES. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 21-04Z ALTHOUGH
PROBABILITIES WILL BE AT 30% ACROSS OUR TWO TERMINALS IN THE OKC
METRO (KOKC & KOUN) BUT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A TEMPO GROUP ACROSS
TERMINALS KSWO, KPNC, AND KDUA. SHOULD ANY CONVECTION DEVELOP IN
THAT TIME FRAME IT HAS A POTENTIAL OF BEING SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND A TORNADO AS THE SEVERE HAZARDS.
CURRENTLY SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST UP TO 10 KTS ALTHOUGH
EXPECTING THEM TO VEER MORE SOUTHERLY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS.
HOWEVER BETWEEN 00-06Z A COLD FRONT PUSHES PARTIALLY THROUGH OUR
AREA SHIFTING WINDS MORE NORTHERLY ACROSS TERMINALS IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA WITH WIND SPEEDS UP TO 10 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 61 84 68 88 / 20 10 10 0
HOBART OK 57 90 62 91 / 10 10 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 62 93 70 94 / 10 10 10 0
GAGE OK 51 85 55 84 / 20 20 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 59 77 64 84 / 60 30 20 0
DURANT OK 64 87 71 91 / 60 20 20 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...68
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