748
FXUS64 KOUN 261202
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
702 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 200 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
- CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IF STORMS OCCUR, ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE INCLUDING
VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND A LOW TORNADO RISK.
- DRIER AIR MOVES IN MONDAY, WITH ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN OK.
- LOW STORM CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK TUESDAY, BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
A COMPLEX AND CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER SETUP IS FORECAST FOR TODAY
AS THE IMPACT OF YESTERDAY'S CONVECTION ON THE ENVIRONMENT AND THE
DEGREE OF SYNOPTIC FORCING LATER TODAY LEAVE SUBSTANTIAL QUESTION
MARKS FOR WHETHER WE SEE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND WHERE THEY MAY
DEVELOP. OUTFLOW FROM STORMS LAST EVENING HAS PUSHED DEEPER MOISTURE
LARGELY SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW, PATCHY FOG, AND/OR DRIZZLE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN NORTH TX IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO
WESTERN OK THROUGH THE DAY, WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF IT BRINGING MOISTURE AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS BACK
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL OK. A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED
ACROSS CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY, BUT FORCING
FROM THE WAVE WILL BE LATE ARRIVING AND LARGELY DISPLACED
WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE BEST INSTABILITY. THERE ARE TWO MAIN AREAS
WE WILL BE WATCHING TODAY FOR POTENTIAL STORM INITIATION, WITH
BOTH AREAS BEING HIGHLY CONDITIONAL:
1. ALONG/AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE: STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 4000+ J/KG EXPECTED BY MID-
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH MINIMAL CAPPING. SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL STORMS WITH A RISK FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS
WITH 40-50KTS OF BULK SHEAR PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
DUE TO A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET. THAT SAID, VERY FEW MODELS
SHOW INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM THE
SHORTWAVE WILL STILL BE TO THE WEST OF THIS AREA DURING PEAK
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
DRYLINE APPEARS RELATIVELY WEAK BUT A NARROW WINDOW FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE BETWEEN ROUGHLY 21-00Z AS
CAPPING ERODES. OVERALL CHANCES FOR STORMS DEVELOPMENT HERE ARE
ONLY 10-20%.
2. WARM FRONT/TRIPLE POINT IN NORTHERN OK: A BIT BETTER SIGNAL FOR
STORM INITIATION EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS ACROSS NORTHERN OK AS THE
WARM FRONT/TRIPLE POINT LIFTS NORTHWARD AND SERVES AS A SOURCE OF
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THESE AREAS WILL ALSO BE A BIT CLOSER TO
SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE WAVE TO OUR WEST, ALTHOUGH THE ARRIVAL OF
LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM THE WAVE STILL APPEARS SLIGHTLY MISALIGNED
WITH PEAK HEATING HERE. THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN OK IS ALSO MORE UNCERTAIN THAN
FURTHER SOUTH AS SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL HANG ON WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON, LIMITING THE
DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION. STORM INITIATION HERE (IF IT OCCURS)
WOULD LIKELY BE LATER (CLOSER TO 00Z) AS THE WAVE ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST AND WOULD BE MORE LIKELY IF THE WAVE ENDS UP SLIGHTLY FASTER
THAN MODELS DEPICT CURRENTLY. AS OF NOW THE CHANCES FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN OK ARE AT 20-30%.
IN SUMMARY, WHILE CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
TODAY ACROSS THE AREA, ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING IMPACTFUL SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IN PLACE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS CLOSELY THIS MORNING AND HOPEFULLY A CLEARER
PICTURE WILL BEGIN TO EMERGE AS TO WHERE (AND IF) STORMS MAY
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AS THE WAVE
MOVES BY TO OUR NORTHEAST AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS IN ITS WAKE,
BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR IN PLACE FIRE WEATHER WILL MAKE A RETURN ACROSS
WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN OK, WHERE ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT GREENUP HAS
OCCURRED IN MANY SPOTS THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OK THAT HAVE LARGELY
MISSED OUT ON APPRECIABLE RAIN THE LAST COUPLE WEEKS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH LATER MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT BUT IS FORECAST TO SLOW/STALL OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL
POSITION WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. HIGHS ACROSS
NORTHERN OK WILL BE COOLER TUESDAY, ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S,
WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER ARE FORECAST TO
REACH THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S.
WARE
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
DRY/COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY AS THE WAVE DRAWS MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER THE RESIDUAL
FRONTAL ZONE. EXTENSIVE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
IS FORECAST COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA (CURRENTLY MOST FAVORED ACROSS SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH
TX). THE SEVERE RISK APPEARS MORE UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON
WHETHER OR NOT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN RETURN NORTHWARD.
HIGHS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE 60S TO
LOW 70S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WARE
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH
NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS ONE MIGHT THINK GIVEN THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION OCCURRING. BUT WITH THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION, THE IFR
CONDITIONS MAY EXPAND INTO THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING BEFORE THE TYPICAL LATE MORNING RISE OF CEILINGS BEGINS.
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TODAY.
A 50 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS THIS EVENING CREATING LOW-LEVEL
NON-CONVECTIVE WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 84 69 88 54 / 20 10 0 0
HOBART OK 90 63 91 51 / 10 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 94 70 94 60 / 10 10 0 0
GAGE OK 85 55 84 43 / 20 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 76 65 84 48 / 50 30 0 0
DURANT OK 85 72 90 66 / 20 20 10 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...26
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