532
FXUS64 KOUN 261755
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1255 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1253 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
- CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IF STORMS OCCUR, ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE INCLUDING
VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND A LOW TORNADO RISK.
- DRIER AIR MOVES IN MONDAY, WITH ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN OK.
- LOW STORM CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK TUESDAY, BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
A CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK WITH A COMPLEX SET OF METEOROLOGICAL
FEATURES IS IN PLACE FOR TODAY.
WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING AND HAS ALREADY PRODUCED A FEW
WEAK STORMS IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. MOST OF THIS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK, THOUGH A
STRONG STORM OR TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT AS WE GET INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WE'LL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION TO FOCUS IN TWO MAIN AREAS: ALONG A DRYLINE ROUGHLY NEAR
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 81 (MAINLY SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS),
AND IN THE WARM FRONT ZONE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
DRYLINE CONVECTION WILL BE MORE DEPENDENT ON DAYTIME HEATING WITH
UPPER SUPPORT BEING QUITE DISTANT. CAMS ARE INCONSISTENT ON WHETHER
THERE'S ENOUGH FORCING TO GET STORMS TO FORM, BUT ANY STORMS THAT DO
FORM WILL HAVE A RISK FOR LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.
THE WARM FRONT MAY BE A LATER SHOW AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES.
CAMS DEPICT STORMS STARTING IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. AGAIN, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
GETTING STORMS TO FORM, BUT THE CHANCES ARE HIGHER IN THIS REGION.
SIMILARLY, LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE BOTH POTENTIAL
HAZARDS.
THE TORNADO RISK MAY BE MOST ACUTE WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO
RAMP UP THIS EVENING. THIS JET WILL ALSO HELP STORMS PERSIST INTO
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
DAY
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
SOUTHWESTERLY / WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN MUCH DRIER AIR
ON MONDAY, SETTING US UP FOR ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA, PUTTING IT OUT OF SYNC WITH THE HIGHEST ERCS IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME OVERLAP TO WATCH, BUT MOST AREAS
OUTSIDE OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA HAVE SEEN ENOUGH GREEN-UP TO MITIGATE
FIRE DANGER. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE THERMAL
RIDGE) AND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S AND 90S.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY NIGHT, THEN
STALL ROUGHLY HALFWAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY (THOUGH
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FRONTAL POSITION). THIS WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT
IN SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL ALSO SET US UP WITH A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT RANGING FROM HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 70S IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO THE LOW 90S IN NORTH TEXAS.
DAY
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
DRY/COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY AS THE WAVE DRAWS MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER THE RESIDUAL
FRONTAL ZONE. EXTENSIVE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
IS FORECAST COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA (CURRENTLY MOST FAVORED ACROSS SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH
TX). THE SEVERE RISK APPEARS MORE UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON
WHETHER OR NOT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN RETURN NORTHWARD.
HIGHS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE 60S TO
LOW 70S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WARE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
LINGERING STRATUS WILL MAINTAIN PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT
TERMINALS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ALTHOUGH
MAY SEE THE STRATUS SCATTER BY 21Z OVER TERMINALS KOKC & KOUN.
STRATUS PRODUCING VERY LOW CEILINGS AND LOWER VISIBILITIES ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA ARE GRADUALLY ERODING BUT WILL KEEP TERMINAL KWWR
IN A LIFR CATEGORY THROUGH 22Z BEFORE IMPROVING TO A VFR CATEGORY.
THERE ARE CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AS PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR PROB30S AND
TEMPO GROUPS ONLY ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHICH COULD IMPACT
TERMINALS KSWO & KPNC. THE WINDOW FOR SEVERE CONVECTION INITIATION
WOULD BE FROM 19Z-08Z. FOR THE OKC METRO TERMINALS STORM
PROBABILITIES ARE 15-20%.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH ACROSS MOST OF OUR
TERMINALS AT 10-20 KTS GUSTING 20-30 KTS. HOWEVER, A SURFACE TROUGH
STRETCHED ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL MAINTAIN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AT TERMINALS KWWR & KCSM ALTHOUGH EXPECTING THEM TO BACK SOUTHEAST
BY 00Z. A STRONG 40-45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE INCREASING OUT OF
THE SOUTH WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOW-LEVEL WIND-SHEAR OVER MOST OF OUR
TERMINALS BY 04Z. BY 12Z GUSTY SURFACE WINDS VEER SOUTHWEST TO WEST
BY 17Z AS A DRYLINE BOUNDARY STARTS ADVANCING FROM OUT OF THE WEST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 84 69 88 55 / 20 20 0 0
HOBART OK 89 63 90 52 / 10 20 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 94 70 93 62 / 10 10 0 0
GAGE OK 81 53 82 44 / 20 20 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 77 65 84 48 / 50 40 0 0
DURANT OK 86 71 90 68 / 10 20 10 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...68
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