299
FXUS64 KOUN 271819
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
119 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 102 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
- DRIER AIR MOVES IN TODAY, WITH ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX.
- STORM CHANCES RETURN FOR SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL OK TUESDAY,
WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THOUGH SEVERE CHANCES APPEAR LOW OVERALL.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
BREEZY AND MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY. A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL INTO
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, REACHING TO NEAR THE I-40
CORRIDOR WEST OF OKC AND I-44 EAST OF OKC. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WE'RE
SEEING THE EFFECTS OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE YIELDING
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S AND RH VALUES
DROPPING INTO THE TEENS (WITH PERHAPS A FEW SINGLE DIGITS).
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL SEE SOME ELEVATED TO
NEAR CRITICAL RFTIS, THOUGH MUCH OF THIS WILL BE MITIGATED BY
GREENUP. OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL BE THE ONES TO WATCH AS THESE
AREAS ARE STILL IN TRANSITION.
BEHIND THE FRONT, WE'RE SEEING A DROP IN TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 10 TO
15 DEGREES. HIGHS IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE UPPER 70S.
TONIGHT WILL YIELD A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OF MID 40S IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA TO THE MID 60S IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.
DAY
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT NEAR THE RED RIVER BY
SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MOISTURE RETURN IN
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE FRONT LIFTS
SLIGHTLY. WITH THIS WE COULD SEE SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION CONVECTION,
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF I-44. INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY
SUPPORT SOME ELEVATED HAILERS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES,
WE'LL START TO SEE MORE SURFACE BASED STORMS, YIELDING THE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A LOW RISK FOR TORNADOES. TIMING-WISE, WE
COULD SEE STORMS AS EARLY AS 4AM, WITH MULTIPLE SCATTERED ROUNDS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, WE'LL SEE ANOTHER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO THE 90S IN NORTH
TEXAS.
BY WEDNESDAY, WE'LL BE MORE FIRMLY IN THE COOL, DRY AIRMASS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE UNIFORM IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
DAY
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
SHOWER AND STORMS CHANCES WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS YET ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST US.
MOST OF THE AREA APPEARS TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION BEING FORCED BY
WARM ADVECTION OVER THE FRONTAL SURFACE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK DOWN NEAR THE RED
RIVER, BUT OVERALL SEVERE CHANCES APPEAR RATHER LOW GIVEN THE COOL
NATURE OF THE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE A CONCERN FOR PARTS OF THE AREA DURING
THIS PERIOD, BUT MODEL SPREAD REGARDING WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
MAY FALL IS STILL QUITE LARGE. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE DURING
THIS PERIOD, WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S (POTENTIALLY 50S IF RAIN IS WIDESPREAD).
THE TROUGH MAY BE SLOW TO EXIT THE AREA, WITH SHOWER CHANCES
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE EVENTUALLY ENDING. A GRADUAL
WARMUP IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH MODEL SPREAD
INCREASES REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC DETAILS AND HOW QUICKLY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY RETURN.
WARE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
ALL OF OUR TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN IN A VFR CATEGORY AT LEAST
THROUGH 12Z. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS OUR TERMINALS RESULTING IN A NORTH/
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND SHIFT ACROSS OUR TERMINALS AROUND 10-15
KTS GUSTING TO 20 KTS. EXPECTING THE TIMING OF THE FRONT/WIND SHIFT
TO REACH THE I-40 CORRIDOR WELL BY 00Z AND THROUGH SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA & WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY 05Z EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AN HOUR LATER. MEANWHILE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SURFACE
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST VEERING WESTERLY AROUND 10-15 KTS
GUSTING 20-25 KTS. THERE IS A 30% PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED TSRA
ACROSS CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 12-18Z WHICH COULD
IMPACT 4 OF OUR TERMINALS (KDUA, KOKC, KOUN, AND KSWO) WITH A SEVERE
RISK AT TERMINAL KDUA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 56 77 49 71 / 0 30 10 0
HOBART OK 55 86 48 74 / 0 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 61 91 54 74 / 10 40 10 0
GAGE OK 46 74 39 71 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 50 68 44 69 / 0 10 10 0
DURANT OK 68 84 57 71 / 10 80 50 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...68
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