255
FXUS64 KOUN 280406
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1106 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1103 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
- DRIER AIR MOVES IN TODAY, WITH ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX.
- STORM CHANCES RETURN FOR SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL OK TUESDAY,
WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THOUGH SEVERE CHANCES APPEAR LOW OVERALL.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
BREEZY AND MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY. A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL INTO
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, REACHING TO NEAR THE I-40
CORRIDOR WEST OF OKC AND I-44 EAST OF OKC. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WE'RE
SEEING THE EFFECTS OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE YIELDING
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S AND RH VALUES
DROPPING INTO THE TEENS (WITH PERHAPS A FEW SINGLE DIGITS).
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL SEE SOME ELEVATED TO
NEAR CRITICAL RFTIS, THOUGH MUCH OF THIS WILL BE MITIGATED BY
GREENUP. OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL BE THE ONES TO WATCH AS THESE
AREAS ARE STILL IN TRANSITION.
BEHIND THE FRONT, WE'RE SEEING A DROP IN TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 10 TO
15 DEGREES. HIGHS IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE UPPER 70S.
TONIGHT WILL YIELD A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OF MID 40S IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA TO THE MID 60S IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.
DAY
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT NEAR THE RED RIVER BY
SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MOISTURE RETURN IN
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE FRONT LIFTS
SLIGHTLY. WITH THIS WE COULD SEE SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION CONVECTION,
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF I-44. INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY
SUPPORT SOME ELEVATED HAILERS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES,
WE'LL START TO SEE MORE SURFACE BASED STORMS, YIELDING THE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A LOW RISK FOR TORNADOES. TIMING-WISE, WE
COULD SEE STORMS AS EARLY AS 4AM, WITH MULTIPLE SCATTERED ROUNDS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, WE'LL SEE ANOTHER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO THE 90S IN NORTH
TEXAS.
BY WEDNESDAY, WE'LL BE MORE FIRMLY IN THE COOL, DRY AIRMASS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE UNIFORM IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
DAY
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
SHOWER AND STORMS CHANCES WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS YET ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST US.
MOST OF THE AREA APPEARS TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION BEING FORCED BY
WARM ADVECTION OVER THE FRONTAL SURFACE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK DOWN NEAR THE RED
RIVER, BUT OVERALL SEVERE CHANCES APPEAR RATHER LOW GIVEN THE COOL
NATURE OF THE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE A CONCERN FOR PARTS OF THE AREA DURING
THIS PERIOD, BUT MODEL SPREAD REGARDING WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
MAY FALL IS STILL QUITE LARGE. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE DURING
THIS PERIOD, WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S (POTENTIALLY 50S IF RAIN IS WIDESPREAD).
THE TROUGH MAY BE SLOW TO EXIT THE AREA, WITH SHOWER CHANCES
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE EVENTUALLY ENDING. A GRADUAL
WARMUP IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH MODEL SPREAD
INCREASES REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC DETAILS AND HOW QUICKLY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY RETURN.
WARE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
COLD FRONT HAS REACHED ALMOST TO THE RED RIVER EARLY TONIGHT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NORTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR STRATUS DEVELOPING IN
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY DAYBREAK. STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THAT
SAME REGION IN ONE OF TWO PERIODS: EITHER DURING THE MORNING, OR
MID-TO-LATE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS ARRIVES LATE AND
PUSHES ALL CLOUDS OUT AT/AFTER SUNSET.
MEISTER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 88 56 77 49 / 0 0 30 10
HOBART OK 90 55 86 48 / 0 0 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 93 61 91 54 / 0 10 40 10
GAGE OK 77 46 74 39 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 78 50 68 44 / 0 0 10 10
DURANT OK 91 68 84 57 / 10 10 80 50
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...04
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