693
FXUS64 KOUN 111913
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
213 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 210 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
- HOT, WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MIDDLE TO
LATE WEEK ACROSS THE AREA.
- SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WEST
BY THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND WITH
SOME RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
PERFECT MAY WEATHER IS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON AS A ~1025 MB
SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A DRIER
AIR MASS IN PLACE.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT, WHICH WILL SHIFT
THE WINDS TO SOUTH. THE RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN
WARMER CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH MORE VERTICAL MIXING AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION.
MAHALE
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
A WARMING TREND BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
AND THE EASTWARD EXPANSION OF A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE WITH VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S DEG F TOMORROW AFTERNOON (~10 TO 15 DEG F HIGHER THAN TODAY).
FARTHER TO THE EAST, TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
DEG F.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING WITH A ~591
DAM MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. APPRECIABLE SYNOPTIC-
SCALE ASCENT/FORCING IS PROGGED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTHEAST,
WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE FRONT CAPPED ACROSS OKLAHOMA
WITH WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE, THERE IS ONLY A LOW
CHANCE (~10%) ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
FOR WEDNESDAY, SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA IN THE FRONT'S WAKE (MID TO UPPER 80S DEG F).
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST, IT'LL BE ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S DEG F. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/WARM AIR ADVECTION.
MAHALE
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE WEST
WEDNESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS LEE TROUGHING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS, WHICH WILL AID IN TIGHTENING THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND STRONG, GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP
THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH A LEAD WAVE WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH SEVERAL MODELS ARE
SHOWING SOME PRECIP TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING FURTHER EAST TO SEE MUCH OF ANYTHING OTHER THAN SOME
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME VIRGA ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA
ON THURSDAY.
ALSO AT THIS TIME, DEPENDING ON LOCATION OF DRYLINE AND IMPACTS OF
RECENT RAINS ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA'S VEGETATION, SOME ELEVATED
TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OUT ACROSS FAR
WESTERN,NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. THESE CONDITIONS MAY THEN
LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
BY LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND A TRANSITION TO MORE SOUTHWEST
FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE AND A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN MAY
RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
VFR CEILINGS THIS TAF PERIOD. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT BUT GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARDS THE E AND SE AS THE
SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE S AND SW TUESDAY MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 55 82 61 86 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 54 90 60 92 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 55 87 61 93 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 54 93 58 87 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 53 87 60 83 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 56 82 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...25
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