221
FXUS64 KOUN 130407
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1107 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1044 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
- VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM MID TO LATE
WEEK.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR DRY LIGHTNING THUNDERSTORMS.
- THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
WARMER WEATHER IS ONGOING ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH
TEXAS RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEG F HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE WARMER
WEATHER IS OCCURRING DUE TO THE NORTHEAST EXPANSION OF A LOW-
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS A
RESULT, HIGH TEMPERATURES OUT WEST WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S DEG F. FARTHER TO THE EAST, TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S
DEG F.
THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT BEFORE IT DISSIPATES (FRONTOLYSIS). SYNOPTIC-SCALE
ASCENT/FORCING WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION, WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE FRONT CAPPED
ACROSS OKLAHOMA WITH WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO A ~591 DAM MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THEREFORE, THERE IS ONLY
A VERY LOW CHANCE (<10%) ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING.
MAHALE
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
LOWER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA IN THE
FRONT'S WAKE (LOW TO MID 80S DEG F) ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
TODAY. THEREFORE, IT'LL BE ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S DEG F. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WARM AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
HOTTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE EXPANDS FARTHER TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE IN THE MID
90S TO NEAR 100 DEG F. FARTHER TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEG F. STRENGTHENING LEE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT, WHICH WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE HEAT,
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS, AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE WITH THE
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS (I.E., SUSCEPTIBLE FUELS) TO RESULT IN
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
ISOLATED, HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD HAVE A THREAT
FOR DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS GIVEN THE HIGH CLOUD
BASES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL GIVEN VERY DRY LOW-
LEVELS, WHICH WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT EVAPORATION (I.E.,
VIRGA). THE EVAPORATION WOULD ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS, WHICH WILL BRING
THE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
MAHALE
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
BREEZY BUT LESS GUSTY ON FRIDAY SHOULD THE STRONG MORNING LOW-LEVEL
JET WEAKEN. OUR HEATING TREND PEAKS ON FRIDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
90S TO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA REACHING
TRIPLE DIGITS UP TO 103 DEGREES. OUR UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN THIS WEEKEND AS A TROUGH STARTS DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
SURFACE-BASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT STRENGTHENING THIS WEEKEND WITH
WIDESPREAD 60S DEWPOINTS AND FEELING MUCH MUGGIER WITH THE HEAT. THE
SHARPENED DRYLINE OUT IN THE PANHANDLES WILL START MAKING ADVANCES
TOWARD OUR AREA ALONG WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE TROUGH WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE CONVECTION. NBM POPS HAVE LOWERED
TO TEENS FOR SATURDAYS SEVERE RISK AS POPS HAVE INCREASED TO 20-30%
FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHEN A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST REGION MAY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH OKLAHOMA
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH THE FRONT BEFORE
TURNING EAST NORTHEAST. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 61 86 64 89 / 0 10 0 0
HOBART OK 60 93 66 97 / 0 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 60 94 66 96 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 58 87 63 96 / 0 0 10 20
PONCA CITY OK 60 82 59 91 / 10 0 20 0
DURANT OK 58 87 64 89 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...23
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