580
FXUS64 KOUN 140512
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1212 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1156 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
- VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR DRY LIGHTNING THUNDERSTORMS.
- THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THIS WEEKEND
AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
ANOTHER WARM DAY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 80S AND 90S
(WARMEST TEMPS OVER SOUTHWEST OK / WESTERN NORTH TX). WE'LL SEE A
SLIGHT BREEZE IN OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S. THERE IS
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A DECAYING THUNDERSTORM CROSSING FROM THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING.
DAY
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SEE A COMBINATION OF FIRE WEATHER
(ESPECIALLY WINDY ON THURSDAY), MARGINAL SEVERE RISKS, AND HOT
CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER: ON THURSDAY, A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PANHANDLES, A DRYLINE PUSHING EAST TO
HIGHWAY 81, AND A MODERATELY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MIXING GUSTY WINDS
DOWN TO THE SURFACE (EXTENDING FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA) WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE UP TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA. MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS (WITH MORE EXTREME MODELS BRINGING
RH VALUES DOWN TO 10 PERCENT ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES) WITH
SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 25 MPH, GUSTING TO 35 MPH. CIRRUS MAY
PLAY A MITIGATING ROLE AGAINST THE EFFECTS OF DEEP MIXING.
GREENUP WILL HELP MITIGATE FIRE RISK FARTHER EAST, BUT FAR WESTERN
AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA CONTINUE TO HAVE DRY, VOLATILE FUELS WITH
ERCS IN THE 80TH TO 90TH PERCENTILE.
ON FRIDAY, THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT IN
NORTHWEST OK, MITIGATING RFTIS DESPITE SIMILAR RH VALUES (MID TO
UPPER TEENS). ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL BE
CONFINED TO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT NORTH TEXAS WHERE
BREEZIER WINDS WILL OVERLAP WITH THE LOWER RH VALUES BEHIND THE
DRYLINE. AGAIN, THE MOST VOLATILE FUELS WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES.
WIND: WIND MAY POSE A HAZARD IN AND OF ITSELF AS GUSTS APPROACH 35-
40 MPH, PARTICULARLY OVER THE WICHITA MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. FOR NOW, THESE HIGHER GUSTS APPEAR TO BE LOCALIZED SO WILL
HOLD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY. NEVERTHELESS, IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY
ACROSS THE STATE.
SEVERE WEATHER: AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASSES OVER THE REGION AND
WITH A DRYLINE IN PLACE, WE WILL HAVE SOME LOW STORM CHANCES BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, PRIMARILY DURING THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT TIME
PERIODS. THESE ELEVATED STORMS COME WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
HAZARDS (DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL).
HEAT: WARMING TREND CONTINUES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BRINGING US TO
NEAR RECORD HIGHS ON FRIDAY. MOST SITES ARE FORECAST TO COME WITHIN
2 TO 4 DEGREES OF RECORDS.
DAY
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
STILL HAVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISKS FOR THIS WEEKEND AS A SHARP
DRYLINE MAKES ADVANCES TO OUR WESTERN CWA BOTH AFTERNOON. INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE WILL RESULT IN
STRONGER DESTABILIZATION IN OUR AREA FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE STORM
ACTIVITY. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. COULD EXPEL A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FURTHER
ENHANCING STORM ACTIVITY. PROBABILITIES FOR STORMS SATURDAY IS
STILL LOW ALTHOUGH THEY INCREASE UP TO 30% LATE SUNDAY WITH A STRONG
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AS THE APPROACHING TROUGH DEEPENS BECOMING
MORE LONGWAVE PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA AROUND
MONDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT STORM POPS WILL BE INCREASING 50% LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS WE'LL BE TRENDING "WETTER" EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STILL HOT ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA WITH A COOLDOWN EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH AFTER SUNRISE AND INCREASE QUICKLY. BY MIDDAY WINDS WILL BE
15-20KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-35KTS ACROSS MOST SITES. THERE WILL BE
SOME MID/HIGHS CLOUDS THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OF A STORM IMPACTING WWR/CSM AROUND 00Z FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 63 88 71 92 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 65 96 70 101 / 0 0 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 65 95 70 99 / 0 0 10 10
GAGE OK 63 96 64 97 / 0 0 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 59 88 69 92 / 10 0 10 10
DURANT OK 64 88 70 88 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ004-005-
009-010-014-015-021-033-034-036.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ083.
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...30
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