829
FXUS64 KOUN 141715
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 154 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
- VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
WITH A COOLDOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK TO MORE SEASONABLY NORMAL.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. THERE WILL BE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN PARTS OF
OUR AREA ON FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
WINDY CONDITIONS, FIRE WEATHER, AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEVERAL POTENTIAL WEATHER ISSUES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS, AS WELL AS HEAT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WHILE A DEEPENING LEE LOW WILL BE TIGHTENING THE SURFACE
ISOBARS ACROSS OUR AREA INCREASING SOUTH WINDS SUSTAINED 20-25 MPH.
STRONG MIXING OFF THE SURFACE TO AN 850 MB JET FLOW COULD PRODUCE 30-
40 MPH GUSTS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE HAS
PRODUCED A SHARP (STRONGER) DRYLINE WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN
STRETCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES (UNTIL THIS WEEKEND),
BUT A BROADER DRYLINE STRETCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES
IS EXPECTED TO PUNCH INTO OUR WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRIER
AIR WILL RESULT IN VERY LOW RH VALUES BEHIND THE LINE THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 15-20%. AS A RESULT THE FIRE DANGER WILL BE AN ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL RISK BEHIND THE DRYLINE DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS AND
UNSEASONABLY HOT AIR. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM NOON
TILL LATE THIS EVENING BEHIND THE DRYLINE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN
OKLAHOMA INCLUDING ADJACENT HARDEMAN COUNTY TX. THE HEAT DOME EFFECT
UNDER THE RIDGE WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOWER-LEVELS WILL
SOAR OUR TEMPERATURES WITH MOST OF OUR CWA WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
HEATING INTO THE 90S WHILE TO UPPER 80S EAST OF THE CORRIDOR.
ALTHOUGH ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR MID MAY, NOT
EXPECTING TO BREAK ANY TEMPERATURE RECORDS TODAY.
AS FAR AS CONVECTION, WE DO HAVE A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS ACROSS NORTHERN THROUGH WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO ADJACENT
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
SHOULD DIURNAL HEATING ERODE THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAP NEAR THE DRYLINE
BY LATE AFTERNOON, THEN CONVECTION COULD FIRE UP THROUGH STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS. D-CAPE FORECAST
VALUES SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH AN ADDITIONAL LARGE HAIL HAZARD CLOSER TO THE KANSAS STATE
LINE. BEHIND THIS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE
RIDGE COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL ELEVATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.
ONE CAVEAT IS OUR AFTERNOON SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN TO
OVERCAST WITH HIGH CLOUDINESS. SHOULD THE HIGH CLOUDINESS BE THICK
AND DENSE ENOUGH TO SLOW SOLAR HEATING IT COULD AFFECT/DECREASE WIND
GUST SPEEDS, INSTABILITY, AND HEATING.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 154 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
WARMER TONIGHT AND BREEZY UNDER A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WITH MUCH OF
OUR AREA COOLING DOWN TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WHICH WILL BE NEAR RECORD
BREAKING FOR THE DAILY WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.
HOT AND WINDY AGAIN FRIDAY AND PERHAPS HOTTER ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST
CWA WITH TRIPLE DIGIT MAXTS TO 104 DEGREES AS WE WILL COME VERY
CLOSE TO BREAKING DAILY WARMEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RECORDS AT SOME
LOCATIONS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT NORTHERN TEXAS. OUR
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES BREAKING DOWN WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH.
ALTHOUGH EXPECTED TO STAY CAPPED AT THE LOWER-LEVELS WE COULD SEE
SOME ELEVATED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTY
WINDS WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK WEST OF I-35.
ON SATURDAY THE "SHARP" DRYLINE MAKES ITS ADVANCE TO OUR WESTERN CWA
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS OUR WEST
ENHANCED BY AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS
ALONG WITH A SEVERE RISK ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
UPPER TROUGHING STARTS DIGGING THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. BECOMING
MORE LONGWAVE AS PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL BE FALLING ACROSS OUR AREA.
STILL HOT SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF OUR WESTERN CWA WITH MANY 90S
ALTHOUGH WARM 80S HIGHS WILL BE INCREASING FURTHER WEST OF I-35 INTO
WEST-CENTRAL OK. OUT WEST THE DRYLINE MAKES ANOTHER PUNCH INTO OUR
WESTERN CWA. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES FLOWING DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
TROUGH COULD RESULT IN STORMS OVER OUR WITH PROBABILITIES INCREASING
30-50% MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHEN OUR NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BE PUSHING THROUGH. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
THIS WEEKEND ACROSS PARTS OF OUR AREA WITH THE BETTER CHANCE LATE
SUNDAY AS THE GFS IS SUGGESTING DRYLINE CONVECTION. THE SEVERE RISK
BECOMING MOST WIDESPREAD MONDAY WHEN THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM (MAIN
TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY) WILL BE COMING THROUGH. BY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WE'LL FINALLY SEE A COOLDOWN WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO SEASONABLY NORMAL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION UNDER INCREASING
MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. SCATTERED HIGH-
BASED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATER THIS EVENING,
OFFERING CONCERN FOR GUSTY-ERRATIC WINDS AND BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VIS. STORM COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED ENOUGH THAT
PROB30'S WERE MAINTAINED (OVER INCLUSION OF TEMPO GROUPS).
OVERNIGHT, WIDESPREAD LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS, WITH GREATEST PERSISTENCE EXPECTED NEAR
THE RED RIVER.
SAFE TRAVELS!
UNGAR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 88 71 92 72 / 0 0 10 20
HOBART OK 96 70 102 70 / 0 30 10 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 95 71 99 71 / 0 20 20 20
GAGE OK 96 64 98 63 / 0 30 10 20
PONCA CITY OK 88 69 90 70 / 0 20 10 20
DURANT OK 88 70 89 70 / 0 0 20 20
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-005-009-
010-014-015-021-033-034-036.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083.
NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...09
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