368
FXUS64 KOUN 150358
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1058 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1058 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
- VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
WITH A COOLDOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK TO MORE SEASONABLY NORMAL.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
- THERE WILL BE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN PARTS OF OUR
AREA ON FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
TODAY WILL FEATURE FIRE WEATHER IN THE WEST, GUSTY WINDS, AND A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER: FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR LOW RH VALUES (MID TO
UPPER TEENS) TO COMBINE WITH GUSTY WINDS (20 TO 25 MPH, GUSTING TO
35 MPH) ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT NORTH
TEXAS. GREENUP WILL LIMIT THE EASTERN EXTENT OF FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS, BUT FUELS IN OUR FAR WESTERN / NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES
REMAIN VOLATILE (75TH TO 90TH PERCENTILE). SCATTERED CIRRUS MAY ALSO
PLAY A MITIGATING ROLE AGAINST DEEPER MIXING.
WIND: WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA (THOUGH A FEW
LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WICHITA MOUNTAINS), BUT WILL BE GUSTY NONETHELESS.
STORMS: MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FORMING OFF A
DRYLINE IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA / NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THESE ELEVATED STORMS WILL POSE PRIMARILY A DOWNBURST WIND
RISK.
DAY
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
HEAT IS SET TO PEAK ON FRIDAY, APPROACHING RECORD VALUES AT SEVERAL
SITES.
FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN PRIMARILY IN SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, WHERE GUSTY WINDS WILL ALIGN WITH
LOW RH VALUES BEHIND THE DRYLINE. FIRE WEATHER IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
WILL BE SOMEWHAT MITIGATED BY FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS, DESPITE LOW RH
VALUES AND VOLATILE FUELS. WILL BE ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS
MOST OF OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.
ISOLATED GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE WICHITA MOUNTAINS, BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN LOCALIZED.
HOLDING OFF ON ANY WIND HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OFF THE
DRYLINE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH DOWNBURST WINDS
AGAIN AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
SIMILAR SETUP FOR SATURDAY, THOUGH SLIGHTLY LESS EXTREME IN MOST
RESPECTS. THE AXIS OF HIGHEST WINDS SHIFTS BACK SLIGHTLY NORTH (AND
WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH FOR NEAR WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS IN THE SOUTHWEST
AGAIN), AND THE DRYLINE APPEARS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST.
DAY
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
UPPER TROUGHING STARTS DIGGING THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. BECOMING
MORE LONGWAVE AS PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL BE FALLING ACROSS OUR AREA.
STILL HOT SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF OUR WESTERN CWA WITH MANY 90S
ALTHOUGH WARM 80S HIGHS WILL BE INCREASING FURTHER WEST OF I-35 INTO
WEST-CENTRAL OK. OUT WEST THE DRYLINE MAKES ANOTHER PUNCH INTO OUR
WESTERN CWA. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES FLOWING DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
TROUGH COULD RESULT IN STORMS OVER OUR WITH PROBABILITIES INCREASING
30-50% MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHEN OUR NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BE PUSHING THROUGH. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
THIS WEEKEND ACROSS PARTS OF OUR AREA WITH THE BETTER CHANCE LATE
SUNDAY AS THE GFS IS SUGGESTING DRYLINE CONVECTION. THE SEVERE RISK
BECOMING MOST WIDESPREAD MONDAY WHEN THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM (MAIN
TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY) WILL BE COMING THROUGH. BY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WE'LL FINALLY SEE A COOLDOWN WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO SEASONABLY NORMAL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST HAS DIMINISHED THIS
EVENING AS THE SUN HAS GONE DOWN AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL.
HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL SOME LINGERING MID-LEVEL ECHOES IN BOTH
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA, AND WITH DRY LOW-LEVEL
AIR UNDERNEATH THESE ECHOES, IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS MID-LEVEL
PRECIPITATION IS EVAPORATING AS IT FALLS (VIRGA) AND THERE CAN BE
SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE ECHOES.
WE EXPECT A SIMILAR SCENARIO FRIDAY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MID-
LEVEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS, BUT AGAIN WITH LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR EXPECTED (ESPECIALLY IN
THE WEST), VIRGA AND ENHANCED STRONG WIND POTENTIAL WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP. WITH THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS BEING WIDELY SCATTERED, THE PROBABILITY NEAR ANY OF
THE INDIVIDUAL AIRPORTS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A PROB30 GROUP, BUT
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 72 91 71 88 / 0 20 20 10
HOBART OK 72 101 69 97 / 10 20 20 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 72 98 70 94 / 20 20 20 0
GAGE OK 66 99 64 99 / 30 20 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 70 91 69 90 / 10 10 30 0
DURANT OK 70 88 70 87 / 0 0 20 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ009-010-014-
021-033-034-036.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ083-084.
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...26
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