280
FXUS64 KOUN 162257
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
557 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 555 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
- THERE IS RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS PARTS OF OUR AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MOST
AFTERNOONS ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.
- VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
WITH A COOLER WEATHER BY TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
THE TREND CONTINUES WITH LOW CHANCES FOR DRYLINE DRIVEN CONVECTION,
FIRE WEATHER WEST OF THE DRYLINE, HEAT OUT WEST, AND GUSTY WINDS
AREAWIDE.
FIRE WX: LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL COMBINE OVER
VOLATILE FUELS TO PRODUCE ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THE RH CONTRIBUTION TO RFTI AS RECENT MODEL RUNS KEEP
THE DRYLINE A BIT FARTHER WEST AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY'S RUNS
(RECENT OBSERVATIONS SEEM TO BE IN LINE WITH THIS TREND).
NEVERTHELESS, BREEZY WINDS WILL STILL BE A FACTOR CONTRIBUTING TO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER.
SEVERE STORMS: THIS EVENING WILL BRING LOW CHANCES (~10%) FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS OFF THE DRYLINE OUT WEST. MAIN THREATS WOULD
BE HAIL AND WIND. STRONG CAPPING WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. MODELS
DO HINT AT A SUBTLE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL IT
BE ENOUGH? WESTERN NORTH TEXAS (DUE TO STRONGER SURFACE HEATING) AND
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA (DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW) WILL
BE THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR STORMS.
HEAT: TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN CLIMB TO THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, WHILE EAST OF THE DRYLINE
WE'LL SEE MORE UPPER 80S AND 90S. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY,
BUT NOT BY MUCH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S.
WIND: GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL AGAIN BE THE RULE TODAY, ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE WICHITA MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL LIKELY
PEAK IN THE LATE AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING AS AFTERNOON MIXING
INTERSECTS WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE WIND SPEEDS
MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE TOWARD DAWN.
DAY
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
GUSTY WINDS, FIRE WEATHER (WESTERN COUNTIES), AND A POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
FIRE WX: SUNDAY'S FIRE WEATHER RISK WILL BE FOCUSED IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WHERE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS (20 TO 30 MPH, GUSTING TO 40 MPH)
AND LOW RH VALUES (TEENS) WILL COMBINE OVER VOLATILE FUELS (90-95TH
PERCENTILE) PRODUCING CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS. WE'VE ISSUED
AN RFW FOR THIS AREA.
MONDAY'S FIRE RISK WILL DEPEND PARTLY ON THE LOCATION OF THE
DRYLINE, CURRENTLY FORECAST TO SETUP NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE 100TH
MERIDIAN. WITH CONTINUED GUSTY SOUTH WINDS, WE COULD SEE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.
STORMS: CHANCES FOR DRYLINE CONVECTION WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON
SUNDAY (BUT, STILL LOW: ~20-30%) WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER UPPER LEVEL
FORCING. NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA REMAINS THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR CI.
THESE STORMS WILL CARRY A SEVERE HAIL/WIND RISK. ADDITIONALLY, WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL GIVE US A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
STORM CHANCES INCREASE ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES.
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AGAIN LOOKS TO BE FAVORED FOR DRYLINE CONVECTION
(CLOSER TO THE UPPER FORCING). THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES. ADDITIONALLY, WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, KEEPING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN PLACE THERE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
MESSIER, BUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS (POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE) WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
WIND: AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS, SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME QUITE GUSTY EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 40 MPH ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BOTH DAYS.
WE'VE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY.
DAY
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
FOR TUESDAY, THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW
FAR SOUTH THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT ADVANCES TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE LATEST
TREND IS A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE, SO A LARGER PART OF OUR AREA
HAS A RISK OF STORMS ON TUESDAY.
WHILE COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE FRONT'S WAKE FOR
WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER WAVE WILL APPROACH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. GIVEN THESE STORMS SHOULD BE ELEVATED (I.E., NORTH OF
THE FRONT), THE RISK OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD
BE LIMITED TO HAIL (MODULATED BY THE MAGNITUDE OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY).
MAHALE
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
VFR/MVFR CEILINGS THIS TAF PERIOD WITH LLWS EXPECTED AT SEVERAL
SITES LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM
THE S AND SE THIS TAF PERIOD REMAINING BREEZY OVERNIGHT AND
BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 71 87 71 86 / 0 10 20 20
HOBART OK 69 93 69 93 / 10 10 10 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 70 91 71 92 / 0 10 10 30
GAGE OK 68 95 67 96 / 10 20 20 20
PONCA CITY OK 71 90 71 90 / 10 20 20 10
DURANT OK 72 89 75 88 / 10 10 40 40
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-009-010-
014-021-022-033>036.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ004-005-
009-010-014.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ004>013.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083.
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...25
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