573
FXUS64 KOUN 180330
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1030 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1026 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
- THERE ARE RISKS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS PARTS OF OUR AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOONS.
- VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH COOLER
WEATHER BY TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY (BOTH
ALONG THE DRYLINE AND IN AN AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION IN SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA), WITH ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IN OUR FAR
NORTHWEST AND GUSTY WINDS AREAWIDE.
STORMS: WE'LL BE WATCHING TWO MAIN FOCUS AREAS FOR STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FIRST (THAT WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS) IS THE DRYLINE OUT WEST. UPPER FORCING IS
DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH, SO WE'LL SEE THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WITH LOWER CHANCES AS YOU PROGRESS SOUTHWARD. ANY
STORMS THAT FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING WILL POSE A
RISK FOR HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A LOW RISK FOR TORNADOES AS THEY
MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE STATE. AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WILL
HELP TO SUSTAIN STORMS INTO THE NIGHT. THAT SAID, THESE STORMS ARE
NOT A GUARANTEE AS CAPPING WILL KEEP OUR CHANCES LOW (20-30% FOR ANY
GIVEN POINT). IF WE GET ENOUGH STORM COVERAGE, THERE WILL BE A
TENDENCY TOWARD UPSCALE GROWTH THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE SECOND AREA THAT WE'RE WATCHING IS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. A FEW
CAMS ARE BECOMING A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SHOWING WARM AIR
ADVECTION DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THIS AREA. UNCERTAINTIES
ABOUND AS TO WHETHER THESE STORMS WILL STAY ELEVATED (MAINLY A HAIL
THREAT) OR WILL BECOME SURFACE BASED (WHICH COULD CARRY SOME TORNADO
RISK). OF THOSE MODELS THAT DO CONVECT (MAINLY A FEW RUNS OF THE
HRRR AND REFS), MOST KEEP STORMS ON OR JUST OUTSIDE THE SOUTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF OUR FORECAST AREA. OF COURSE, THIS IS ALL DEPENDENT ON
WHETHER WE CAN GET ENOUGH FORCING TO OVERCOME THE CAP IN THE FIRST
PLACE.
FIRE WX: TODAY'S FIRE WEATHER RISK WILL BE FOCUSED IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WHERE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS (20 TO 30 MPH, GUSTING TO 40 MPH)
AND LOW RH VALUES (TEENS) WILL COMBINE OVER VOLATILE FUELS (90-95TH
PERCENTILE) PRODUCING CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE
A SHARP GRADIENT IN HUMIDITY FROM FAR NORTHWEST HARPER COUNTY
(POTENTIALLY AS LOW AS 10 PERCENT) TO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE RED FLAG WARNING (25 TO 35 PERCENT) DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR THE DRYLINE BULGE IMPINGES ON NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
WIND: GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY DUE TO A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 TO 45 MPH ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, WHERE WIND
GUSTS WILL BE A LITTLER LOWER AT 20 TO 30 MPH.
DAY
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
FIRE WEATHER, SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL, AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY.
STORMS: SIMILAR SETUP ON MONDAY (AS COMPARED TO SUNDAY), BUT WITH
THE UPPER WAVE A BIT CLOSER. WE'LL BE WATCHING THE SAME TWO AREAS
AGAIN (NORTHWEST DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT AND SOUTHEAST WARM AIR
ADVECTION) WITH SIMILAR UNCERTAINTIES AND HAZARDS.
HIGHER CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL ARRIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE MONDAY
EVENING (MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 9PM AND MIDNIGHT) WITH STORMS
DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FROM KANSAS DOWN THE LINE. THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE STRONG TO SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THEY RACE SOUTHEASTWARD.
FIRE WX: MONDAY'S FIRE RISK WILL DEPEND PARTLY ON THE LOCATION OF
THE DRYLINE, WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO TREND SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WITH
ITS PLACEMENT. THERE'S HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND CONTRIBUTION TO
RFTI, BUT RH WILL PLAY A FACTOR IN WHETHER THAT IS CAPPED. WITH
LOWER OVERALL CONFIDENCE, ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR NOW.
WIND: GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THROUGH MONDAY,
WITH 40-45 MPH GUSTS AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN, WESTERN, AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. ISSUING ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS
PERIOD.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER (HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
80S). WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING WINDS (INITIALLY
BREEZY IN THE MORNING), WE'LL FINALLY GET A BREAK FROM FIRE WEATHER.
STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, INCLUDING A RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.
DAY
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS MUCH LOWER DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH A COOLER, POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS IN THE AREA.
AT LEAST LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
A WEAKNESS/TROUGHINESS REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
VFR/MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING
MONDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING NW OK
LATE MONDAY EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A FEW STORMS DEVELOP
NEAR THE DRYLINE TO THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. IF THESE
STORMS DEVELOP, THEY COULD MOVE INTO PARTS OF WESTERN OK BUT THE
HIGHER CHANCE FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO START MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 71 86 61 72 / 10 30 60 40
HOBART OK 69 92 60 76 / 20 30 50 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 71 91 67 82 / 10 30 40 50
GAGE OK 68 94 48 74 / 20 20 20 0
PONCA CITY OK 73 89 58 72 / 20 10 80 10
DURANT OK 74 88 73 83 / 30 20 30 80
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR OKZ004>027-
034>038.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR OKZ004-009-014-021-033-034-036.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ083-084.
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...25
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