948
FXUS64 KOUN 010525
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1225 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1218 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
- A FEW STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING,
PARTICULARLY IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
- HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY & MONDAY.
- RAIN/STORM CHANCES RETURN MONDAY & PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
SUMMER HAS ARRIVED ON THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS
SOARING INTO THE UPPER 580S. IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS AND A REASONABLY DRY AIRMASS BEHIND THE DRYLINE, A
STOUT LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE IS ALREADY TAKING SHAPE. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH 100 DEGREES FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
TOWARD NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA, WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES BUT
GREATER HUMIDITY TO THE EAST. ALL TOLD, WET-BULB GLOBE TEMPERATURE
RISKS WILL RANGE FROM "MODERATE" TO "HIGH" THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN FOR OUTDOOR INTERESTS.
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT EXISTS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE
LIKELIEST LOCATION FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP WOULD BE IN NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AT THE FRINGE OF THE PUNCH OF DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE. COINCIDENTALLY, THERE IS A BOUNDARY NOTED
FROM PAYNE COUNTY EASTWARD ON SATELLITE FROM LAST NIGHT'S STORMS IN
KANSAS. THE ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL DESTABILIZE THIS
AFTERNOON AND A STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE BEFORE MOVING OFF INTO WFO
TSA/ICT'S AREAS. HOWEVER, RISING HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY ACT TO CURTAIL
STORM COVERAGE, WITH SUNSET ABOLISHING WHATEVER CONVECTION DOES
DEVELOP.
HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS LOWS FAIL TO DROP BELOW 72
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, PARTICULARLY AS WINDS ABATE SOME.
MEISTER
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
HEAT IS THE NAME OF THE GAME AGAIN TOMORROW WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE 97-101 RANGE WEST OF I-35 AGAIN. UNLIKE
TODAY, THERE WON'T BE A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
NEAR-RECORD HEAT. INSTEAD, WE'LL SEE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING BENEATH A
NEAR-590 RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD, WITH SURFACE WINDS ONLY BEING A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK LEE TROUGHING. WITH THAT
CONSIDERED, HEAT RISK WILL ACTUALLY BE HIGHER TOMORROW WITH LIGHTER
WINDS, CONSISTENT SUNSHINE, AND THE EVER-PRESENT HUMIDITY. HEAT
HEADLINES MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR SOME OF OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
(THOUGH IT IS RATHER BORDERLINE).
A COMPLEX OF STORMS IS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS (AND PERHAPS
FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA) TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET REALLY
KICKS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. GIVEN THE SHAPE OF THE RIDGE, THE
SUBSEQUENT MCS MAY BE OF THE VARIETY THAT BEGINS TO DIVE SOUTHWARD
AFTER DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY, PERHAPS BRINGING OUTFLOW AND STORM
CHANCES TO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES - AND ALSO INTRODUCING UNCERTAINTY
INTO TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR TUESDAY.
MEISTER
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK WITH POTENTIAL SHORTWAVES/DISTURBANCES MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS
BACK IN THE 80S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA. ONE EXCEPTION IS THE AREA OF STORMS
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF KWWR WHICH HAS BEEN PERSISTENT BUT NEARLY
STATIONARY THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CLEAR OF THE TAF SITES AND WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OK MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING, WITH
PROB30'S ADDED TO KWWR/KOKC/KOUN/KSWO/KPNC FROM 21-03Z TOMORROW.
STORMS MAY PERSIST LATER INTO THE EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL OK, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS GREATER AFTER 3Z TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 98 71 93 70 / 10 20 10 20
HOBART OK 100 70 95 68 / 0 10 10 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 98 71 96 69 / 0 0 10 20
GAGE OK 99 69 92 66 / 10 20 30 50
PONCA CITY OK 94 70 88 69 / 10 30 10 0
DURANT OK 95 74 94 71 / 0 0 10 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...08
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