303
FXUS64 KOUN 010635
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
135 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 132 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
- SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OK. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.
- HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY.
- RAIN/STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
STORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN OK LATE THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
HOW THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL GO BUT AT LEAST
MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM
OVERNIGHT WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S (NW OK) TO THE MID 70S
IN SOUTH CENTRAL OK.
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING OVER THE REGION MONDAY WITH A
SHORTWAVE/MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO WESTERN KS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC, A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN SE CO/NE
NM MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A DRYLINE EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA. HIGHER STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD
DEVELOP IN THE AREA ALONG THE DRYLINE MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
MODELS SHOW MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN KS AND NORTHERN OK
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
SHORTWAVE/DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO KS. CAPE VALUES OF 2000-4000 J/KG
COULD DEVELOP MAKING SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN TODAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE REGION AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL
ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE 90S TO TRIPLE DIGITS. HUMID CONDITIONS IN
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA COULD LEAD TO MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-
105 GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN KS/N OK MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
COULD DEVELOP INTO A COMPLEX THAT MOVES SE/S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THESE STORMS WILL PUSH A
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO EXTEND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES SHIFTING TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY COULD
DEVELOP FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
TEMPERATURE FORECAST DUE TO WHERE THE RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL BE.
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD WEDNESDAY LEADING TO
"COOLER" TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 80S
ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH SHOWERS/STORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE
ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. WITH THE RAIN/CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND AVERAGE FOR EARLY JUNE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS WELL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA. ONE EXCEPTION IS THE AREA OF STORMS
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF KWWR WHICH HAS BEEN PERSISTENT BUT NEARLY
STATIONARY THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CLEAR OF THE TAF SITES AND WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OK MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING, WITH
PROB30'S ADDED TO KWWR/KOKC/KOUN/KSWO/KPNC FROM 21-03Z TOMORROW.
STORMS MAY PERSIST LATER INTO THE EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL OK, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS GREATER AFTER 3Z TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 97 71 91 69 / 10 30 20 10
HOBART OK 99 69 94 68 / 0 10 20 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 97 71 95 70 / 0 0 10 30
GAGE OK 97 68 90 66 / 10 20 30 50
PONCA CITY OK 93 70 87 68 / 10 30 20 10
DURANT OK 94 74 93 70 / 0 10 20 20
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...08
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