723
FXUS64 KOUN 011938
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
238 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 238 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
- SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OK. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BE SEVERE.
- POTENTIALLY STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- RAIN/STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
ALTHOUGH WINDS AND CONVERGENCE ARE RELATIVELY WEAK, THE PRESSURE
ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WINDING BACK TO A SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO.
SOME CUMULUS HAS BEGUN TO FORM NEAR THIS BOUNDARY IN OKLAHOMA AND
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IS DEVELOPING
ALONG THIS AREA TO SUPPORT STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS AS
SPC MESOANALYSIS IS SHOWING 2000-4000 J/KG OF MIXED-LAYER CAPE AS
WELL AS WEAKENING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. WINDS SHEAR IS LOW GIVEN
THE RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELD IN LOW AND MID LEVELS, SO EXPECT
STORMS TO BE PULSE STORMS IN GENERAL, ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE STORMS
LAST NIGHT SHOWED MORE PERSISTENCE.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE
COLORADO HIGH PLAINS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW OVER KANSAS AND EASTERN
COLORADO. SOME OF THE CAMS SUGGEST THESE STORMS OR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT IN WESTERN KANSAS MAY DEVELOP INTO A STORM
COMPLEX THAT MOVES TOWARD NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT. THESE
STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF WIND.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TOMORROW (SUCH AS AROUND 850 MB) IS MORE BACKED
AND THIS SHIFTS THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL AXIS FARTHER TO THE WEST,
AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY (RATHER IT BE A SYNOPTIC FRONT AND/OR AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. SO
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS WARM TOMORROW
COMPARED TO TODAY. BUT WITH THIS BOUNDARY IN THE AREA,
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE FOCUS SHIFTING SOUTH WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY. THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS WELL, BUT
THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY.
WITH THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND A BROAD AREA
OF UPSLOPE FLOW ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING IN THE WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT,
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WEST WITH STORMS OR A STORM COMPLEX MOVING IN
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH SHOWERS/STORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE
ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. WITH THE RAIN/CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND AVERAGE FOR EARLY JUNE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS WELL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL OK THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS IN VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. A STORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
FROM KANSAS LATE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. IN ADDITION TO
STORMS POTENTIALLY AFFECTING NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, ANY OUTFLOW
FROM THIS COMPLEX WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION.
DAY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 72 92 69 86 / 20 30 10 10
HOBART OK 71 95 68 87 / 10 20 30 60
WICHITA FALLS TX 72 95 69 88 / 0 20 30 40
GAGE OK 69 92 66 84 / 30 20 30 80
PONCA CITY OK 72 87 68 84 / 30 20 10 10
DURANT OK 74 93 70 86 / 10 30 10 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...14
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