027
FXUS64 KOUN 021704
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1204 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1201 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
- SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN OK. POTENTIALLY STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- RAIN/STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN OK EARLY THIS MORNING AS A MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET MAINTAINS
WARM ADVECTION WITHIN A MOIST AIRMASS. EXPECT THAT OVERALL INTENSITY
AND COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY WILL WANE OVER TIME AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
WEAKENS AND THE LINE OUTRUNS BETTER SHEAR PROFILES TO THE WEST,
BUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE THE LINE WEAKENS. STORMS MAY HAVE A
TENDENCY TO BUILD SOUTHWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK AS STEERING FLOW
BECOMES WEAKER AND MORE NORTHERLY ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF BUILDING
RIDGE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE RESIDUAL FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN OK INTO WESTERN
NORTH TX, THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARDS TO EXACTLY
WHERE THIS WOULD SET UP AND THIS ZONE COULD END UP FURTHER WEST
OR EAST DEPENDING ON HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES THIS MORNING. WIND
SHEAR WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PULSE LIKE STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
HIGHS ACROSS NORTHERN OK WILL BE COOLER WITH CLOUDS AND EASTERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, WITH READINGS HERE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO FOCUS FURTHER WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS NM INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES.
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EXPECTED.
CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EITHER DAY, WITH
THE MAIN RISK BEING DAMAGING WINDS.
WARE
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
AFTER TEMPORARILY RETREATING WESTWARD, RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
WILL EXPAND EASTWARD OVER LATER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS INCHES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME, BRINGING A RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
A LOW (BUT NON-ZERO) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
WARE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
LIGHT WINDS WILL HAVE SOME VARIABILITY IN DIRECTION AS SEVERAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA. LOW CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR
CEILINGS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
DAY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 70 87 66 86 / 0 0 0 30
HOBART OK 69 89 65 88 / 10 30 40 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 70 90 66 88 / 20 10 20 30
GAGE OK 67 87 64 85 / 30 50 50 40
PONCA CITY OK 69 85 65 86 / 0 0 0 20
DURANT OK 71 87 69 86 / 10 0 0 20
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...14
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