691
FXUS64 KOUN 030657
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
157 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 136 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
- DAILY RAIN/STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- STORMS WILL BRING A RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
- ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED, BUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE MOST DAYS.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD
OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING COMPARED TO THE LAST SEVERAL EVENINGS
AS BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS CONFINED TO OUR WEST WITHIN A
SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGING IS CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA.
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY, WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN OK AND
WESTERN NORTH TX BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO EXPAND INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT, BRINGING A RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN ANY AREAS THAT SEE SLOW MOVING AND/OR TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS, BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. ACTIVITY FURTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL OK IS LIKELY TO
BE MORE ISOLATED THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY AND TONIGHT, BUT CAN'T RULE
OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. HIGHS TODAY
WILL REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY JUNE.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
SEVERAL SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
TO THE EAST OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN MX INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST US. THIS WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. WEAK SHEAR AND FAIRLY MOIST ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILES WILL KEEP THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FAIRLY LOW, BUT CAN'T
RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
WARE
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL SLOWLY LIFT EASTWARD
INTO THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND, MAINTAINING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
PERIODIC STORM CHANCES OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS
SUGGEST THE WAVE WILL THEN MOVE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY, SHEARING
OUT AS IT DOES SO AS IT BECOMES ENVELOPED BY A LARGER TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS THE WESTERN US. UPPER FLOW WILL THEN WEAKEN AND
BECOME MORE NEBULOUS OVER THE AREA, BUT WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE, DAILY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
WARE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR DAWN FOR SOME AREAS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING, WHICH INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND BECOME LIKELY OVER KWWR BY THIS EVENING.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT THE MAIN CONCERNS ARE
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 87 68 85 69 / 20 20 40 30
HOBART OK 90 66 86 67 / 30 70 60 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 91 68 87 68 / 20 30 40 40
GAGE OK 88 64 85 67 / 50 80 40 20
PONCA CITY OK 85 67 86 69 / 30 10 50 40
DURANT OK 87 71 85 71 / 20 10 40 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...01
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