049
FXUS64 KOUN 041723
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1139 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
- DAILY RAIN/STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- STORMS WILL BRING A RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
- ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED, BUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE MOST DAYS.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
OK EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A DECAYING MCV, AIDED BY A
~30 KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET. STORMS HAS REMAINED SUBSEVERE
THIS EVENING AND EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT, WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY TO WANE OVER TIME THROUGH THE MORNING.
SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL LEAD TO A RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN A FEW SPOTS.
FORCING FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATER TODAY WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO
DIURNAL HEATING AND ANY RESIDUAL MCVS OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
LINGERING IN THE AREA. THE MID-UPPER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK AND IT
APPEARS OUR AREA WILL BE SOMEWHAT BETWEEN WAVES BY THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH ONE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE MOVING AWAY ACROSS KS, WHILE THE
BROADER UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE LOCATED WELL TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN MX INTO AZ/NM. THEREFORE, STORM
COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE RATHER ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH MOST LOCATIONS STAYING DRY. SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS, THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG, GUSTY WINDS,
ALONG WITH A RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL ONCE AGAIN, WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS TONIGHT NEAR 70 IN MOST SPOTS.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN MX WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
TX ON FRIDAY AND EVENTUALLY INTO OK BY SATURDAY. INITIALLY THIS
WILL CONFINE BETTER STORM CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH ON FRIDAY, BUT
CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
ON SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH STORMS AS THE
OVERALL SEVERE RISK APPEARS TO CONTINUE TO BE RATHER LIMITED. THAT
SAID, CAN'T RULE OUT STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
WARE
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
STORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO OK, THOUGH WE WILL LIKELY
SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION OF RAIN CHANCES EASTWARD OVER TIME AS THE
TROUGH AXIS TRANSLATES TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS MODELS WHICH HAD PREVIOUSLY SHOWN
CONTINUED STORM CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL US ARE NOW SHOWING THIS TROUGH REMAINING FURTHER NORTH
AND WEST WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INSTEAD.
IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR, DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND HOTTER
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK.
WARE
.AVIATION..(18Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
THERE IS A 30% PROBABILITY FOR TSRA ACROSS NORTHERN & SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WHICH COULD IMPACT 3 OF OUR TERMINALS (KPNC, KSWO, &
KDUA) THROUGH 00Z. ANY OF THESE IMPACTED TERMINALS COULD DEGRADE
BRIEFLY TO AN MVFR CATEGORY DUE REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN RAIN.
STRATUS MAY INCREASE TONIGHT FROM OUT OF THE SOUTH AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET IS EXPECTED TO FIRE UP. FIVE OF OUR TERMINALS ALL LOCATED IN
CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA COULD DEGRADE TO AN MVFR
CATEGORY DUE TO LOWERING CEILINGS AFTER 11Z. ALSO INCLUDED A
POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS MOST OF OUR TERMINALS
BETWEEN 05Z THROUGH 16Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 10 KTS GUSTING 15-20 KTS THROUGH 01Z, THEN WILL BE
BACKING MORE SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 KTS. BY 15Z EXPECTING SURFACE WINDS
TO VEER SOUTH AGAIN AT 10-15 KTS GUSTING 15-20 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 88 70 88 70 / 10 10 10 20
HOBART OK 91 71 92 68 / 10 10 10 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 91 70 90 68 / 10 10 20 60
GAGE OK 89 71 93 69 / 10 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 86 72 89 72 / 30 10 0 0
DURANT OK 85 71 85 72 / 30 10 30 40
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...68
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