620
FXUS64 KOUN 061745
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
- AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY CREATE AREAS OF FLOODING.
- STRONG AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. SOME OF THIS RAINFALL HAS BEEN VERY HEAVY. FOR EXAMPLE, THE
WEST TEXAS MESONET STATION NEAR ODELL TX (NORTHERN WILBARGER COUNTY)
RECORDED 6.4 INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY. THE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS A WIDER AREA TODAY AS THE SLOW-MOVING
UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE AREA. VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE FORECAST SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE AN ISSUE. THE
DESI (DYNAMIC ENSEMBLE-BASED SCENARIOS FOR IDSS) SYSTEM SHOWS AREAS
OF 20 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 3" THROUGH
SUNDAY USING HREF AND A 25 KM NEIGHBORHOOD RADIUS. WITH THESE
FACTORS, WE ARE ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA (EXCEPT THE NORTH). THESE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY NOT BE
TOO WIDESPREAD GIVEN THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE STORMS,
BUT WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LOCAL AREAS RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE MOST LIKELY FORM OF SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER TODAY, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS WELL. CAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG IS FORECAST
WITH WEAKENING CIN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. WIND
SHEAR IN GENERAL IS NOT VERY STRONG, SO STORMS MAY NOT BE TOO
PERSISTENT. WE ARE ALSO LOOKING AT A SOMEWHAT PERSISTENT SIGNAL IN
THE NAM OF LOCALIZED ENHANCED SHEAR AND LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY IN
OUR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS
MAY BE A PRODUCT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE MODEL, BUT IF AN
ENHANCEMENT DOES DEVELOP, THIS COULD LOCALLY INCREASE THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THIS AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
NBM AND THE HRRR DID NOT DO VERY WELL YESTERDAY WITH THE
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES. THEY MAY BE DOING BETTER TODAY WITH THE
FORCING FROM THE UPPER LOW APPROACHING AND BEING MORE IN LINE WITH
SOME OF THE OTHER CONVECTIVE MODELS THAT DID MUCH BETTER YESTERDAY,
BUT STILL MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS LOOKING AT THE BROADER
RANGE OF CAMS.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AND PUSH EAST THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS INTO A TROUGH AND
THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. AGAIN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. ALTHOUGH THE
FLOOD WATCH IS VALID THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE CURRENT
EXPECTATION IS THAT SOME OF THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH CAN
BE TRIMMED EARLIER AS THE BEST POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATION SHIFTS
EAST.
AFTER THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BEGINNING A TRANSITION TO A WARMER AND GENERALLY DRY PATTERN
BEGINNING MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
THERE IS NOW A SIGNAL THAT THIS RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL WEAKEN OR SHIFT EASTWARD AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BY MID-WEEK. ALTHOUGH WE STILL REMAIN IN
A WARM PATTERN WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, IT MAY NOT BE QUITE
AS HOT LATE IN THE WEEK AS ANTICIPATED EARLIER. THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH DOES WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE PLAINS (PRIMARILY THE
NORTHERN PLAINS) AND IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR SOUTH ANY FORCING WILL
BE AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST, BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THIS, PRIMARILY THURSDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR TERMINALS WILL VARY FROM VFR TO MVFR AT
LEAST THROUGH 00Z DUE TO THE LOW CLOUD BASE ALTERNATING FROM
SCATTERED TO BROKEN AS WELL AS RISING AND LOWERING. WILL SEE
STORM ACTIVITY INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 00Z AS AN UPPER LOW TRACKS
SOUTH TO NORTH OVER OUR AREA. TSRA PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH ENOUGH
FOR TEMPO GROUPS BY 20-21Z FOR TERMINALS KSPS & KLAW THEN AFTER
00Z FOR OUR REMAINING TERMINALS. TERMINALS CONDITIONS MAY FURTHER
DETERIORATE TO AN IFR CATEGORY AFTER 04Z DUE TO LOWERING CEILINGS
AND PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTION OVERHEAD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AND BECOMING
GUSTY FROM STORM ACTIVITY AS WELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 80 67 86 73 / 80 70 30 10
HOBART OK 83 65 91 73 / 70 60 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 85 66 91 73 / 80 80 40 0
GAGE OK 83 62 92 74 / 50 40 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 79 67 85 73 / 80 80 50 20
DURANT OK 83 72 87 76 / 90 60 80 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR OKZ011>013-015>048-
050>052.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...68
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