409
FXUS64 KOUN 070458
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1158 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1157 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
- SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. SOME STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS
OKLAHOMA WITH AN MCV ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH A
PLUME OF 700MB MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. SOME AREAS MAY
EXPERIENCE A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
BEFORE THE UPPER LOW BRINGS INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO EJECT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS
MAY CONTINUE TO PUSH WEST TO EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.
THE MAIN HAZARD GOING INTO TONIGHT WILL BE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT ALREADY RECEIVED SEVERAL
INCHES OVERNIGHT. THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST RAINFALL AS OF THIS
MORNING HAS BEEN ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WITH ANYWHERE FROM 2-4" WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO
4-7 INCHES. THE ODELL WTM SITE REPORTED 7.19 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN
THE LAST 24 HOURS AND THE GRANDFIELD OK MESONET REPORTED 5.87 INCHES
OF RAINFALL IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. PWATS ARE GENERALLY ABOVE 1.5
INCHES, BUT SEVERAL MODELS ARE HINTING AT UP TO 2 INCH VALUES ALONG
AND NEAR THE RED RIVER, INCLUDING PORTIONS EXTENDING INTO NORTH
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. TWO INCH VALUES ARE ABOVE THE DAILY MAX
FOR CLIMATOLOGY THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WITH 1.5 INCH PWATS BEING
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA, EXPECT
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES EXPECTED WITH STORMS THAT
DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT.
DESPITE THIS MORNING'S SHOWERS AND STORMS, THE LULL AND BREAK IN
CLOUDS IS HELPING TO WARM TEMPERATURES UP WITH AN UNCAPPED
ENVIRONMENT. MLCAPE VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG
WITH THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY FOCUSED IN AND AROUND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WITH THE PRESENCE OF
THE UPPER LOW AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS ALOFT (~30 KNOTS), THERE
WILL BE THE PRESENCE OF A BIT MORE SHEAR TODAY THAN PREVIOUS DAYS
WHICH MAY HELP TO SUSTAIN STRONGER UPDRAFTS. THUS, STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO AT
LEAST 70 MPH LIKELY DUE TO DOWNBURSTS AND LARGE HAIL UP TO AT LEAST
PING PONG SIZE. STORM INTERACTION WITH ANY SURFACE VORTICITY NEAR A
SURFACE LOW OR MCV THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT COULD
GIVE WAY TO A STORM OR TWO POSSESSING LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO. THIS THREAT REMAINS VERY LOW, BUT
NONZERO.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
STORMS WILL LINGER SUNDAY MORNING, BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
LOWER WITH MOSTLY WINDS AND FLOODING AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. THE
UPPER LOW WILL BE PIVOT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CONTINUE TO PUSH
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA
WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY.
IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE BRIEF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. DIURNAL DRIVEN STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE, BUT THE
PROBABILITY REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. IF A STORM OR TWO WERE TO
DEVELOP AND PUSH EAST SOUTHEAST INTO OKLAHOMA, GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
BY MONDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SHIFT TOWARDS A RIDGE
BUILDING IN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE TREND TOWARDS DRY AND
HOT CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 90S AND A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS BREACHING
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT. THANKS TO LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
HUMIDITY, FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO RISE ABOVE 100
DEGREES. AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MAY APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA WITH HEAT INDEXES NEAR OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
THERE IS NOW A SIGNAL THAT THIS RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL WEAKEN OR SHIFT EASTWARD AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BY MID-WEEK. ALTHOUGH WE STILL REMAIN IN
A WARM PATTERN WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, IT MAY NOT BE QUITE
AS HOT LATE IN THE WEEK AS ANTICIPATED EARLIER. THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH DOES WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE PLAINS (PRIMARILY THE
NORTHERN PLAINS) AND IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR SOUTH ANY FORCING WILL
BE AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST, BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THIS, PRIMARILY THURSDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NIGHT. MVFR
TO IFR CEILINGS WILL BUILD BACK OVERNIGHT, THEN GRADUALLY LIFT IN
THE MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY, BECOMING
SOMEWHAT BREEZY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
DAY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 86 67 85 73 / 70 50 30 20
HOBART OK 83 67 91 73 / 70 50 20 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 87 68 91 73 / 60 70 30 10
GAGE OK 80 63 91 72 / 60 50 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 79 68 83 72 / 60 50 50 40
DURANT OK 87 71 87 76 / 80 70 60 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR OKZ011>013-015>048-
050>052.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...14
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