367
FXUS64 KOUN 201707
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1207 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1204 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
- HOT TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT INDICES.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A COLD FRONT LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NEAR TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS, HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.
AN MCV (MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX) ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL
RESULT IN A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
TODAY ON ITS NORTHWEST PERIPHERY. OTHERWISE, MOST LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAYTIME. WARMER WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH
MORE SUNSHINE AND A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 80S TO MID 90S DEG F (SEASONABLE FOR MID-JUNE).
AN MCS (MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM) WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE
ROCKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. THE MCS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY TO THE EAST WITH
THE MOST INTENSE PART MOVING ACROSS COLORADO, NEBRASKA, AND
KANSAS. HOWEVER, THE MCS WILL LIKELY BUILD AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. AS A RESULT, THE REMNANTS OF THIS
COMPLEX MAY IMPACT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AS IT WEAKENS. THE
PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
MAHALE
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
HOT WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD AND STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WITH VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S DEG F WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES ABOVE 105 DEG F FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH THE AREA. A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT, WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST TEMPER THE WET-BULB GLOBE
TEMPERATURES (WBGT).
BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ADVANCE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ~3000 TO 4000+
J/KG OF MLCAPE. COMBINED WITH ~35 TO 40 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR, THE ENVIRONMENT IS SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING FOR CONVECTION INITIATION REMAINS A BIT
UNCERTAIN WITH THE STRONGEST SYNOPIC-SCALE FORCING NOT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY, LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE MORE APPRECIABLE ASCENT APPROACHES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY NIGHT (EVEN NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT) WITH A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET RESULTING IN CONTINUED ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/WARM AIR ADVECTION.
MONDAY'S WEATHER WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE
EFFECTIVE, CONVECTIVELY-REINFORCED COLD FRONT ADVANCES SUNDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY MONDAY. INCREASING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WARM AIR ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY
FURTHER INCREASE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE NEAR AND EVEN NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY.
MAHALE
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO.
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PASS BY THE
PLAINS. AS THESE WAVES PASS BY, THERE WILL BE ONGOING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS MCSS AND/OR EFFECTIVE COLD FRONTS
ADVANCE SOUTHWARD. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
THESE COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND THEIR EFFECTIVE (I.E.,
CONVECTIVELY-REINFORCED) COLD FRONTS SHOULD RESULT IN SEASONABLE
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
RESTRICTIONS TO CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR KDUA. OTHERWISE,
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING,
SHIFTING TO MORE SOUTHERLY BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS
A VERY LOW CHANCE THAT DECAYING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73 96 71 85 / 0 0 70 60
HOBART OK 73 101 72 90 / 0 0 40 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 73 98 76 95 / 0 0 20 20
GAGE OK 73 102 66 85 / 30 10 20 30
PONCA CITY OK 74 97 67 81 / 20 40 60 20
DURANT OK 75 93 78 92 / 10 0 50 40
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...13
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