538
FXUS64 KOUN 210750
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
250 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 240 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT INDICES.
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN/STORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS; SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE ON TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHTS.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX (MCS) CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS
COMPLEX AND ITS ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA.
HOTTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD AND STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE LOW 90S (SOUTHEAST) TO LOW 100S DEG F (WEST) WITH TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT INDICES.
BY THIS AFTERNOON, THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BECOME HIGHLY UNSTABLE (~3000 TO 4000 J/KG OF MLCAPE)
WITH MODEST VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (~30 TO 35 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR), WHICH IS AN ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LOW-COVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION INITIATION BY LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
INITIAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE WITH SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS THAT WILL HAVE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL (AT LEAST
UP TO GOLF BALLS), DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (UP TO 70 MPH), AND A VERY
LOW TORNADO RISK. WITH TIME, UPSCALE GROWTH/CONSOLIDATION INTO
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED. HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING MAY
BECOME AN INCREASING HAZARD OVERNIGHT AS A STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL JET WILL FAVOR CONTINUED REDEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED, TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS.
MAHALE
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
MONDAY'S WEATHER WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE
EFFECTIVE, CONVECTIVELY-REINFORCED COLD FRONT ADVANCES SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY, IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL BE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN I-40 AND THE RED RIVER--BUT FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IS RELATIVELY HIGH AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS TONIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A NORTH TO SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH MUCH
COOLER WEATHER NORTH OF THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S DEG F. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE BACK INTO THE 90S DEG F.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO THE FRONT/REMNANT BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. INCREASING
ASCENT FROM AN APPROACHING WAVE AND A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET
MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY FURTHER INCREASE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE NEAR AND EVEN NORTH OF THE FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLOODING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE WILL BE
A RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA, AND A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING.
MAHALE
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO.
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE FLOW MOVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS. AS THESE WAVES PASS BY, THERE WILL BE ONGOING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS MCSS AND/OR EFFECTIVE COLD FRONTS
ADVANCE SOUTHWARD. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WITH RESPECT TO LOCATION, THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH DECREASING CHANCES WITH SOUTHWARD
EXTENT. THESE COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND THEIR EFFECTIVE,
CONVECTIVELY-REINFORCED COLD FRONTS SHOULD RESULT IN SEASONABLE TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
BY THE LATE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK,
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE MAY
STRENGTHEN TO OUR EAST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HOTTER AND DRIER
WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX COMING DOWN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS COULD
IMPACT 3 OF OUR TERMINALS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH 12Z. AS A
RESULT TERMINALS KWWR, KPNC, AND KSWO COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE DOWN TO
AN IFR CATEGORY WITH A LOWERED CEILING AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN
RAIN ALTHOUGH THE LATTER TWO COULD STAY IN AN IFR CATEGORY DUE TO
STRATUS UP TO 15Z. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
WILL INCREASE AFTER 19Z ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA REACHING THE
I-40 CORRIDOR BY 01Z AS 30% PROBABILITIES ARE IN PLACE AT
TERMINALS KCSM AND THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO (KOKC & KOUN).
SURFACE WINDS CURRENTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BUT EXPECTED TO VEER
MORE SOUTHERLY BY 12Z AT 15 KTS GUSTING TO 20 KTS. BY 16Z SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING 15-20 KTS WILL GUSTING UP TO 30 KTS AS
WE START MIXING HIGHER INTO A LOW-LEVEL JET. AT CURRENT TIME THE
LOW-LEVEL JET IS STRENGTHENING OUT OF THE SOUTH INCREASING TO 35
KTS FLOW WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS OUR
TERMINALS. A COLD FRONT WILL START PUSHING INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
BETWEEN 00-03Z SHIFTING SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BEHIND
IT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 95 72 86 68 / 0 60 40 90
HOBART OK 97 72 90 68 / 0 40 40 70
WICHITA FALLS TX 95 75 94 72 / 0 30 30 50
GAGE OK 102 66 84 64 / 10 40 50 60
PONCA CITY OK 95 67 80 65 / 30 60 20 70
DURANT OK 92 78 92 76 / 0 40 50 50
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR OKZ005>008-011>013-015>027-033>039-044-045.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...68
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