226
FXUS64 KOUN 230405
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1105 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1053 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
- MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE
- SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
WITHE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE
- MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
A DIFFUSE STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
(GAGE TO WEATHERFORD TO SEMINOLE) AND A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
NEAR THE RED RIVER (TRUSCOTT TO WICHITA FALLS TO WAURIKA TO SOUTH
OF ATOKA). THESE BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE FOCAL ZONES FOR POTENTIAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHANCES
ARE LOWER FOR CENTRAL OKLAHOMA COMPARED TO THE RED RIVER AREA BASED
ON A FEW SUPPRESSION FACTORS - NAMELY, MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM LAST NIGHT'S STORM COMPLEX (PRELIMINARILY
CLASSIFIED AS A DERECHO).
DAYTIME HEATING AND STRONGER FRONTOGENESIS NEAR THE REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE WHERE THE SOMEWHAT HIGHER STORM CHANCES
ARE, WHICH INCLUDE PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST, SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. WHILE THE 12Z HREF WOULD SUGGEST
AT LEAST A MEDIUM POTENTIAL OF AN ADDITIONAL 1 INCH OF RAINFALL
TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT NORTH TEXAS, SOME OF
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS MAY OCCUR SOUTH OF OUR FA.
THOMPSON
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN OUR AREA,
THOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR NORTH IT LIFTS. HOT/MUGGY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED SOUTH OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WHILE A FEW MODELS SHOW HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES ON
TUESDAY, THE PROBABILITIES OF REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (105
DEG) ARE LOW.
SUBTLE PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW
COMBINED WITH PLENTIFUL INSTABILITY AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
PROVIDE FOR CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS LATE
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COMPLEX OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRAIGHT LINE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS. A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EXISTS ON
WEDNESDAY.
THOMPSON
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
OUR UPPER PATTERN WILL NOT BE CHANGING MUCH IN THE LONG TERM WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES COMING THROUGH THE RIDGING. AT THE SURFACE OUR
WARM FRONT MAY BE STALLING OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR TO NORTH OF I-40
EVENTUALLY LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS COMING UP INTO THE WEEKEND. STORM POPS
WILL BE SHIFTING HIGHER ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE IN THE WEEK
NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH THE START OF A DRY PATTERN THIS
WEEKEND ALONG WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES RETURNING WITH TRIPLE DIGIT
HIGHS PERHAPS WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. OVERALL THIS WEEKEND IS
TRENDING HOTTER & MUGGY AND DRY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
MCS ACTIVITY COMING OFF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/TX PANHANDLE MAY
STORMS MOVING WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 06-18Z POTENTIALLY IMPACTING
ALL OF OUR REMAINING TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KSWO & KPNC ALTHOUGH LOW
CEILINGS FROM STRATUS ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL OKLAHOMA MAY REDUCE
THOSE TWO TERMINALS TO AN MVFR CATEGORY WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HAVE AT LEAST 30% PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE COMING DOWN OFF THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS WHICH MAY IMPACT OUR TERMINALS IN WESTERN, CENTRAL, AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA FROM 18-23Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN A BIT
CHAOTIC IN DIRECTION DUE TO MULTIPLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES ACROSS OUR
AREA AND ADDITIONAL STORM ACTIVITY COULD INCREASE GUSTINESS AND
VARIABILITY. BY 00Z WILL BE INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE STORMS
TO TEMPO GROUPS AT MOST OF OUR TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 68 87 73 89 / 60 30 50 60
HOBART OK 68 92 73 94 / 50 30 30 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 71 95 75 97 / 40 20 10 10
GAGE OK 65 88 68 87 / 40 20 60 30
PONCA CITY OK 65 82 70 83 / 10 40 70 70
DURANT OK 74 90 77 93 / 60 30 20 20
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...68
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