412
FXUS64 KOUN 232152
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
452 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 443 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING, STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- CHANCES FOR EVENING STORMS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND POTENTIALLY
THURSDAY.
- HOTTER AND DRIER INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ISOLATED,
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS (75+MPH POSSIBLE) AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THE PRIMARY HAZARDS; THERE IS A VERY LOW TORNADO POTENTIAL
AS WELL. SPC MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A LARGE PWAT MAXIMA OF 2.2 INCHES
EXTENDING ACROSS EAST- CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO PARTS
OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT NORTH TEXAS. A SHORT-FUSED FLOOD
WATCH WAS ISSUED EARLIER FOR EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DUE TO ANTICIPATED
HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH IS CURRENTLY ONGOING.
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MAY DESCEND FROM KANSAS
THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IF DESTABILIZATION CAN
RECUR OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, THOUGH THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN
TODAY'S ACTIVITY. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL, WILL BE EXTENDING THE
CURRENT FLOOD WATCH IN TIME AND ADDING NORTH-CENTRAL AND THE
REMAINING SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA COUNTIES.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
GIVEN MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY AND REMNANT BOUNDARIES. LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORM DEVELOPMENT. POPS ARE ON THE LOW SIDE FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN
THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE STORMS DEVELOP AND INCREASE TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OR MCS POTENTIAL FROM
KANSAS. STORM CHANCES REMAIN PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL BREAK DOWN BY SATURDAY AT THE LATEST.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL SLIDE BACK EAST AND AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST US IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. FOR US, THERE ARE A FEW SENSIBLE IMPACTS:
-TEMPERATURES WILL START HEATING UP AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND, AND HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY ONCE AGAIN BE MET OVER A 3-5 DAY SPAN
CONSECUTIVELY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
-RAIN CHANCES WILL MARKEDLY DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, AS WELL.
THERE IS AN INDICATION THAT THE UPCOMING PERIOD OF RIDGING WILL THEN
RETROGRADE AND CENTER ITSELF BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
DURING WEEK 2, BUT THAT IS BEYOND THE CURRENT LONG-TERM FORECAST.
MEISTER
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 443 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
EXPECTING A LULL WITH THE CONVECTION AS MOST TERMINALS RETURN TO
A VFR CATEGORY. TWO MORE ROUNDS OF MCS COULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT, THE FIRST COMING DOWN OFF THE CENTRAL PLAINS BETWEEN
02-07Z ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES WILL BE AT 30%. A SECOND ROUND
COMING OFF THE CENTRAL & SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AFTER 09Z WILL
LIKELY IMPACT 2 OF OUR TERMINALS IN WESTERN & NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
BUT LOWER PROBABILITIES OF 30% FOR OUR REMAINING TERMINALS.
ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF MVFR & IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNDER THESE
POTENTIAL STORMS DUE TO LOWERING CEILINGS AND/OR REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN RAIN. BY 18Z ANY STORM PROBABILITIES SHOULD END
WITH ALL TERMINALS IN A VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE NEXT 6 HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 70 88 72 91 / 60 40 30 20
HOBART OK 70 93 72 96 / 50 20 30 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 73 96 75 98 / 40 10 10 0
GAGE OK 66 86 67 94 / 70 20 30 30
PONCA CITY OK 68 82 69 86 / 70 50 60 60
DURANT OK 76 92 76 92 / 30 20 10 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-
018>020-024>032-039>043-046>048-051-052.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...68
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