673
FXUS64 KOUN 241859
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
159 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 155 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
- LOW POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.
- CONDITIONAL BUT POTENTIALLY HIGH-IMPACT STORM EVENT POSSIBLE IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- HOTTER AND DRIER INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
AFTER ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN AND STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
THIS MORNING, GENERALLY DRIER WEATHER IS NOW EXPECTED FOR MOST. A
WELL-DEFINED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) CONTINUES TO DRIFT
EASTWARD NEAR TULSA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS, AND EVEN SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, CONTINUE IN ITS WAKE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. COMBINED WITH BROAD
SUBSIDENCE, A MOSTLY DRY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS
FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE LOW-80S NORTH TO NEAR
100 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS.
WE WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON REMANANT OUTFLOW, CURRENTLY
SLIDING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE RED RIVER, FOR LOW CONFIDENCE (~20-
30%) STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING (AFTER 4 PM). WHILE
AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS AND LACK OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT (I.E., RISING
HEIGHTS) CAST UNCERTAINTY, PROVIDED HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND
A SOURCE OF NEAR-SURFACE CONVERGENCE, THIS POTENTIAL CANNOT BE
DISCOUNTED. IF STORMS FORM THEN SOME RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING WILL EMERGE FOR A FEW HOURS
DURING THE MID-EVENING.
OUR OVERNIGHT FORECAST IS A FAMILIAR ONE, WITH AN INCREASING LOW-
LEVEL JET/ISENTROPIC FLOW FOSTERING DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGHEST
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40, AND ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER, WHERE REMNANT CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS ARRIVING FROM OUR NORTHWEST ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. GIVEN MULTIPLE RECENT ROUNDS OF RAINFALL, LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ON
THURSDAY. AS SUCH, A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BEGINNING AT 1 AM ON THURSDAY
MORNING.
UNGAR
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
WE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE A "LULL" IN PRECIPITATIVE WEATHER BY THE
LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING POTENTIAL EMERGES. GIVEN A BELT OF
STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW, A MORE ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORM MODE
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION TO
HAIL/WIND CONCERN, A MORE EVIDENT TORNADO RISK EXISTS COMPARED TO
PRIOR STORM PERIODS THIS WEEK. THIS RISK WOULD SEEM TO MAXIMIZE
NEAR A PSEUDO WARM FRONT, AND AS A LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES DURING
THE EARLY EVENING. SOME CONTINUED RISK OF STRONG-SEVERE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, AS COALESCING CONVECTION
FROM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS MOVES EASTWARD. LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN THROUGH SUNRISE ON FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT SEE RAIN/STORMS THURSDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE PATTERN BEGINS TO DRY OUT BY THE TIME WE GET TO FRIDAY,
THAT DOESN'T MEAN WE WILL BE COMPLETELY RAIN/STORM FREE. AS A
DEEPER UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE WEST COAST,
AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTS THE AREA, LOW CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL PERSIST DURING THE EVENING TIMEFRAME.
UNGAR
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL SPEND MOST OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD
REORIENTING ITSELF SO THAT EARLY IN THE PERIOD (SATURDAY/SUNDAY)
THERE WILL BE AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS,
AND IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD (MONDAY/TUESDAY) THERE WILL BE
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WE'LL REMAIN ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, WHICH IS USUALLY A GREAT PLACE
FOR THINGS TO START TO HEAT UP. GIVEN ALL OF THE RECENT RAINFALL,
THIS HEATWAVE IS PROBABLY GOING TO BE MORE OF A "BOIL" THAN A "BAKE"
EVENT, AND IT WOULDN'T SHOCK ME IF THE CURRENT GRIDDED FORECAST
OUTPUT IS TOO HIGH WITH ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES, BUT TOO LOW WITH
"FEEL-LIKE" TEMPERATURES ON MULTIPLE DAYS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL ALSO DWINDLE WITH SUNNY DAYS AHEAD FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.
MEISTER
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
THE 18Z FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC, AS WE ARE IN A BIT OF A
LULL BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY ALONG A BOUNDARY SEEN ON
SATELLITE NEAR THE RED RIVER. WHILE THE CAMS ARE INSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING A FEW STORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, THE SAME CAMS DON'T
QUITE HAVE THE LOCATION CORRECT, AS THEY PRODUCE STORMS BETWEEN
KADM AND KOUN. HOWEVER, THE BOUNDARY IS CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER,
WHICH COULD LIMIT CONVECTION THIS FAR NORTH. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP
LOW PROBABILITIES WITH A PROB30 GROUP IS MOST OF THE TAFS AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR ANY ONE AIRPORT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 71 91 75 92 / 30 20 40 10
HOBART OK 71 95 74 96 / 20 10 40 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 74 96 76 97 / 20 0 20 0
GAGE OK 67 95 66 92 / 40 40 70 0
PONCA CITY OK 68 86 70 88 / 60 40 50 10
DURANT OK 76 92 77 93 / 30 10 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM CDT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
OKZ004>013-019-020-026.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...21
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