448
FXUS64 KOUN 251641
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1141 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1116 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
- CONDITIONAL BUT POTENTIALLY HIGH-IMPACT STORM CHANCES ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING WITH SEVERE/FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- HOTTER AND DRIER INTO THE WEEKEND AND THE WEEK BEYOND.
MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
... ISSUED AT 1116 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
TODAY'S SITUATION IS SOMEWHAT COMPLEX. THE TAFS ARE GOING TO BE A
LITTLE MESSY AS WELL. HOWEVER, HERE'S THE CURRENT SETUP:
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN SW KANSAS, WITH A TROUGH /
PSUEDO-DRY LINE EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST INTO WEST TEXAS.
ALSO FROM THE LOW CENTER, THERE IS A WARM FRONT WHICH STRETCHES
FROM THE LOW FROM BEAVER...TO GUTHRIE...TO FORT SMITH. WELL NORTH
OF HERE, THERE'S A COLD FRONT, STRETCHING FROM NE COLORADO THROUGH
CENTRAL KANSAS, THEN EASTWARD INTO MISSOURI.
THERE IS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SURFACE BASED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2500
J/KG WHICH RANGES FROM WOODWARD TO ADA. 850MB THETA-E RIDGE
EXTENDS SW TO NE FROM CHILDRESS TO STILLWATER, WHILE SEVERE
WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE BEGINNING TO HIGHLIGHT NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
ALL OF THESE FEATURES WILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON TODAY'S WEATHER
AND FORECASTS, SO AM GIVING AN OVERVIEW HERE...AND THIS PROBABLY
WON'T THE LAST MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR THE DAY.
FOX
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS, THE
CONDITIONAL CEILING FOR SEVERE/FLOOD RISK IS HIGHER THAN WE HAVE
SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS.
STARTING AT THE BEGINNING: A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY
TRUNDLING EASTWARD ACROSS THE LLANO ESTACADO AS OF EARLY THIS
MORNING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS COMPLEX WILL WEAKEN AS IT COMES
OFF OF THE CAPROCK. AT FIRST GLANCE, IT IS A LITTLE HARD TO
UNDERSTAND WHY THAT WOULD HAPPEN. THE STORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH A
WELL OF 2,000-3,000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO RAMP
UP OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT, BUT OUTFLOW HAS RECENTLY BEGUN
TO ACCELERATE, WHICH COULD SPELL THE DEATH KNELL OF THOSE STORMS.
EITHER WAY, THE PRESENCE AND VEERING OF THE LLJ SHOULD LEAD TO AT
LEAST SPORADIC CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITHIN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
AFTER THAT, ATTENTION TURNS TO LATER IN THE DAY. PRESSURE FALLS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL WORK TO VEER WINDS FROM EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AND SURGE A THETA-E TONGUE TOWARD THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS
BORDER. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH CONVECTION EXISTS DURING THE
DAY TO STANCH THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE THETA-E TONGUE, BUT IT IS
QUITE LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED WARM
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FEATURE TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
INITIATION.
THE REAL KEY TO THE CEILING FOR THE SEVERE/FLOOD RISK THIS EVENING
WILL BE THE EXISTENCE AND NATURE OF THE LLJ. THIS HAS BEEN A
DIFFICULT THING FOR MESOSCALE MODELS TO TRY AND PINPOINT SO FAR,
WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ON THE HRRR AND NSSL WRF FALLING INTO A
BIN THAT COULD BEST BE DESCRIBED AS "COMICAL". HOWEVER, A BROAD-
BRUSH AVERAGE OF CAM/GLOBAL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT A REASONABLY
BACKED 850 MB LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING,
PARTICULARLY NEAR I-35. IF CONVECTION INITIATION OCCURS IN THE
FRONTAL ZONE/LLJ REGION OVERLAP, DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WOULD BE
EXPLICITLY FAVORED. THOSE SUPERCELLS (WERE THEY TO EXIST) WOULD BE
FAVORED FOR LARGE HAIL - THOUGH NOT GIANT HAIL, GIVEN PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES, AS WELL A CONDITIONAL RISK OF SIGNIFICANT
TORNADOES. IF CONVECTION INITIATION OCCURS WEST OF THE LLJ AXIS,
SUPERCELLS OR CLUSTERS WOULD BE FAVORED WITH A DAMAGING WIND ASPECT
DISPLACING THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT.
IT MUST ALSO BE SAID THAT REGARDLESS OF CONVECTION EVOLUTION (AND
EVEN IF NO STORMS OCCUR THIS EVENING, WHICH IS A POSSIBILITY - THIS
WOULD MOST LIKELY OPEN THE WINDOW FOR AN MCS TO ENTER NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA FROM KANSAS LATE TONIGHT), THERE WILL BE A RISK OF VERY
SERIOUS FLASH FLOODING. PWATS OVER 2 INCHES WILL LEAD TO EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PROCESSES, PARTICULARLY IN ANY SUPERCELLS, WHERE 2-3 INCH
PER HOUR RATES COULD BE REALIZED. PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA HAVE
SEEN VERY HEAVY OVER THE LAST WEEK, WHICH WILL EXACERBATE FLOODING
ISSUES.
MOST OF THIS NEAR-TERM AFD HAS FOCUSED ON NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DUE TO
THE INCREASED IMPACT POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST IN THE REGION.
HOWEVER, FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD, STORMS WILL ALSO BE IN THE
FORECAST - ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS A COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVES IN FROM
THE TEXAS PANHANDLES. FURTHER FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, SHEAR
PROFILES MAY NOT FAVOR SUCH AN ORGANIZED SEVERE/FLOOD RISK. BUT WE
SHOULD NOT CONFLATE "LESSER" RISK WITH "NO" RISK.
MEISTER
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
FORTUNATELY, THE SHORT TERM FORECAST LOOKS A LITTLE BIT LESS
RAMBUNCTIOUS THAN MUCH OF THE PREVIOUS WEEK. IN LARGE PART, THIS IS
A PRODUCT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEAMPLIFYING AND SLIDING EASTWARD
TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL MOVE US OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND
MORE INTO A "WESTERN RIDGE PERIPHERY" REGIME, WHICH FAVORS STEADY
WARMING AND DECREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. IT WOULDN'T BE A
SURPRISE TO GET A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG ANY REMNANT BOUNDARIES, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD
BE SPORADIC AND THE ENVIRONMENT MUTED ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD
SEVERE/FLOODING ISSUES.
ON SATURDAY, WE MAY EVEN BEGIN TO SEE A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE SURFACE WIND AS A POTENT-FOR-LATE-JUNE TROUGH SWINGS BY TO OUR
NORTH. THIS WILL BRING AIR TEMPERATURES SOARING TOWARD 100 IN PLACES
THAT DIDN'T SEE MUCH RAIN RECENTLY, AND HEAT INDICES SOARING TOWARD
105 ELSEWHERE.
MEISTER
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
THE MAIN LONG-TERM STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
CONSISTENT AND POSSIBLY LONG-DURATION HEATWAVE ACROSS OUR AREA.
GLOBAL, ENSEMBLE, AND AI-BASED GUIDANCE ALL INDICATE AN
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH (BEYOND) THE END OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. BECAUSE OF
THAT, PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE GOING TO BE SLIM TO NIL DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME. NOT ONLY WILL AIR TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES APPROACH
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MOST DAYS, BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE LITTLE
RELIEF, SITTING NEAR 80 IN MOST SPOTS.
MEISTER
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
SEE THE MESOSCALE UPDATE PORTION FOR THE OVERVIEW OF ALL THE
THINGS GOING INTO THE FORECAST, BUT FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
TAFS, THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT LULL. MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS WILL BE
THE RULE FOR MOST TERMINALS UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR AROUND
00Z. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY IN THE NORTH, WITH PROB30
GROUPS INCLUDED FOR KOKC AND KOUN. AFTER THE STORMS, THE UPPER
WINDS BECOME STRONG OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, LEADING TO SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
BY 11Z FRIDAY, MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE WANING, GIVING WAY TO
VFR CEILINGS AND IMPROVED CONDITIONS.
FOX
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 74 92 78 96 / 50 10 10 0
HOBART OK 74 96 77 100 / 50 10 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 76 97 78 101 / 10 10 0 0
GAGE OK 67 91 73 102 / 70 0 30 0
PONCA CITY OK 70 88 74 93 / 60 10 30 10
DURANT OK 77 92 78 95 / 0 10 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>013-019-020-026.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...10
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