445
FXUS64 KOUN 251944
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
244 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 224 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
- CONDITIONAL BUT POTENTIALLY HIGH-IMPACT STORM CHANCES ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING WITH SEVERE/FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- HOTTER AND DRIER INTO THE WEEKEND AND THE WEEK BEYOND.
MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
2 PM LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS IN SW KANSAS, BETWEEN LIBERAL
AND ELKHART...JUST NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BORDER. A
DIFFUSE WARM FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THIS LOW TO ALVA-
STILLWATER-FORT SMITH. WHILE THIS FRONT IS ATTEMPTING TO MOVE
NORTH, THE COLD FRONT AND CONVECTION IN KANSAS IS NOT ALLOWING FOR
MUCH MOVEMENT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING KCLK IN THE OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS PANHANDLE, IN A HOT AND MIXED ENVIRONMENT. FROM SW KANSAS
INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA,THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL NEED A FEW MORE
HOURS OF SUNSHINE TO FULLY DESTABILIZE, BUT WE HAVE SEVERAL MORE
HOURS OF FULL SUNSHINE TO GO. THE ZONE NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL BE
THE AREA WITH THE MOST POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS, AS THE LOW LEVEL
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IS MAXIMIZED.
WOFS MODELING AND CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ARE HIGHLIGHTING
THIS AREA FOR SEVERE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT, BUT NOT FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS, PEAKING BETWEEN 4 AND 7 PM.
FOX
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL SEVERE CONVECTION ARE THE MAIN TOPICS
FOR TODAY AND AGAIN TONIGHT. MESOSCALE SECTION HAS THE PERTINENT
DETAILS OF THE FEATURES TO BE WATCHED.
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THERE'S A LITTLE BIT OF A LULL IN THE
ACTION. EVEN SO, THERE WILL BE ECHOES ON RADAR MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON. AREAS IN NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL BE
PRIMARY AREA TO WATCH, AS THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY, SHEAR
AND BOUNDARIES ARE MAXIMIZED THERE. HOWEVER, AS THERE ARE SURFACE
BOUNDARIES IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS FROM EARLIER STORMS...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.
RAIN / THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGIN IN THE NEXT HOUR IN THE NORTH,
BEFORE DRIFTING WEST AND SOUTH BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON.
FOX
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
AFTER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TODAY, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL BE DAYS WHERE THE WARMUP WILL BEGIN. HIGHS WILL BE RISE INTO
THE LOWER 90S ON FRIDAY (FOR MOST AREAS) AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S BY SATURDAY. OVER THE PAST WEEK, WE HAVE HAD DEW POINTS IN THE
70S, AND THERE WON'T BE MUCH RELIEF IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
DESPITE THE CLEARING SKIES. IN OTHER WORDS, THE HUMIDITY WILL BE
BORDERLINE OPPRESSIVE FOR BOTH DAYS, BUT ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
THE MAIN LONG-TERM STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
CONSISTENT AND POSSIBLY LONG-DURATION HEATWAVE ACROSS OUR AREA.
GLOBAL, ENSEMBLE, AND AI-BASED GUIDANCE ALL INDICATE AN
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH (BEYOND) THE END OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. BECAUSE OF
THAT, PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE GOING TO BE SLIM TO NIL DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME. NOT ONLY WILL AIR TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES APPROACH
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MOST DAYS, BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE LITTLE
RELIEF, SITTING NEAR 80 IN MOST SPOTS.
MEISTER
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
SEE THE MESOSCALE UPDATE PORTION FOR THE OVERVIEW OF ALL THE
THINGS GOING INTO THE FORECAST, BUT FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
TAFS, THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT LULL. MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS WILL BE
THE RULE FOR MOST TERMINALS UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR AROUND
00Z. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY IN THE NORTH, WITH PROB30
GROUPS INCLUDED FOR KOKC AND KOUN. AFTER THE STORMS, THE UPPER
WINDS BECOME STRONG OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, LEADING TO SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
BY 11Z FRIDAY, MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE WANING, GIVING WAY TO
VFR CEILINGS AND IMPROVED CONDITIONS.
FOX
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 75 93 77 95 / 50 10 10 10
HOBART OK 74 96 76 99 / 50 10 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 76 97 77 99 / 10 10 10 0
GAGE OK 67 90 71 101 / 80 0 30 0
PONCA CITY OK 70 88 73 92 / 60 10 20 10
DURANT OK 77 92 78 94 / 0 10 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>013-019-020-026.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...21
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