200
FXUS64 KOUN 261843
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
143 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1257 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
- SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS,
GUSTS TO 70 MPH, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
- FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR A SMALL AREA OF NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA
- SUMMER FINALLY SHOWS UP.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BE THE MOST INTERESTING PART OF
THIS FORECAST UPDATE, AS JUST ENOUGH PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR
AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE IT IS STILL JUNE, ANY
THUNDERSTORM WILL HAVE AN APPROPRIATE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR TO PRODUCE A FEW SEVERE STORMS.
YESTERDAY: MUCH MORE OF A CLASSIC SETUP, AS EVIDENCED BY THE
TORNADOES IN THE PANHANDLES. TODAY ISN'T QUITE AS VOLATILE, YET
THERE ARE STEEP LAPSE RATES, 0-6KM SHEAR APPROACHING 35 TO 40
KNOTS, AND SOME JUICY DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S. THIS ISN'T ENOUGH FOR
A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY, BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCATTERED
STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE IF THEY CAN DEVELOP. ACARS AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE PRETTY CLOSE, EACH SHOWING BETWEEN 2000-2500 J/KG OF
CAPE IN CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.
SO, CAN STORMS INDEED DEVELOP. FOR A LIFTING MECHANISM, THERE IS A
STALLED FRONT FROM AMARILLO,TX TO WELLINGTON,KS TO SPRINGFIELD,
MO. 18Z SATELLITE DATA SHOWS CU IN THE DEVELOPMENT STAGE...AND
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ENHANCE THIS THROUGH SUNSET. WITH FEW
EXCEPTIONS, THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ARE SHOWING A SIGNAL
FOR INCREASED CLOUD BASE RH...AND ARE DEVELOPING CONVECTION AS
EARLY AS 22Z, BUT ESPECIALLY BY 0Z. THUS, AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY IN THE NORTH.
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES ARE MOST NOTABLE ON
SATELLITE JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER IN SOUTHERN KANSAS. AS STORMS
FIRE HERE, THEY WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE RAIN AND/OR RUNOFF
IN GRANT, KAY, AND NOBLE COUNTIES. THIS IS THE SAME AREA WHICH HAS
SEEN OVER 5+ INCHES OF RAIN IN SPOTS THIS WEEK. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AS LITTLE AS 1/2 INCH COULD AGGRAVATE ANY FLOODING ISSUES THERE.
THEREFORE, A FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THOSE THREE COUNTIES
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
FOX
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY, RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASE. AS THE
RAIN CHANCES MOVE EAST, THE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE. LOW
90S TODAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO MID AND UPPER 90S ON SATURDAY,
WITH CLOSE TO TRIPLE DIGITS POSSIBLE NEAR WICHITA FALLS.
THANKFULLY, NOWHERE NEAR RECORD SETTING TERRITORY. SEE BELOW FOR
MORE ON THAT. HOWEVER, DESPITE NOT BEING RECORDS, IT'LL FEEL HOT
ENOUGH, AS THE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO AS HIGH AS 103.
RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN WICHITA FALLS ARE TWO OF THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES ON RECORD AT KSPS. SATURDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD
IS 116, SET IN 1980. SUNDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD IN WICHITA
FALLS IS THE HIGHEST ON RECORD, 117 DEGREES, ALSO SET IN 1980.
FOX
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
MIDNIGHT SHIFT DID A GREAT JOB WITH THE OVERVIEW, SO HAVE KEPT THE
TEXT BELOW. OF THE NEXT SIX DAYS, WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING ONE
RECORD WARM MINIMUM (RECORD HIGH MORNING LOW TEMP), TWO THAT TIE
EXISTING RECORDS, AND WITHIN 2 DEGREES OF THE REMAINING THREE. IN
OTHER WORDS, ONCE THE RELATIVE COOL WEATHER IS GONE, SUMMER IS
HEADING IN WITH A VENGEANCE. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD, WITH
MONSOONAL FLOW SETTING UP OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.
FOX
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION:
1253 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN STORY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90'S TO LOW 100'S. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, WITH WARMER VALUES EXPECTED
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO MID-WEEK. LOW SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
COULD LINGER ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT NORTH TEXAS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
VFR/MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SW TO
SE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN NORTHERN OK ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
LOW CHANCES IN OTHER AREAS AS WELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 76 96 79 96 / 20 10 0 0
HOBART OK 76 100 78 100 / 10 0 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 77 99 77 98 / 10 0 0 0
GAGE OK 72 102 80 102 / 10 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 73 92 79 94 / 50 10 0 0
DURANT OK 78 94 77 95 / 10 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR OKZ007-008-013.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...25
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