182
FXUS64 KOUN 271130
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
630 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 455 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
GIVEN STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA (RAP) CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING H500 SPEED MAX, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH 7 AM AS A PRECAUTION. THE COMPLEX ENTERING
OUR AREA FROM THE PANHANDLES SHOULD EXIT OUR FORECAST AREA BEFORE OR
NEAR DAWN.
DURING THE DAY, THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS
AS A WARM FRONT AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ACROSS THE FA INTO THE
MID-90'S AND LOW 100'S. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE TRIPLE DIGITS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HREF HAS HIGH PROBABILITIES OF
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AND ADJACENT NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER, CAMS HAVE NOT HANDLED ONGOING
CONVECTION VERY WELL AND THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER THESE HEAT
INDICES WILL BE REACHED IF SHOWERS/STORMS LINGER ON SATURDAY
MORNING.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE
DRYLINE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
THOMPSON
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE ON BOTH SUNDAY MORNING AND MONDAY MORNING. BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL HELP MITIGATE THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT
TERM.
THOMPSON
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK, WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AIR TEMPERATURES CREEP UPWARDS
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK AND TEMPERATURES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES
ARE FORECAST TO BE WIDESPREAD BY NEXT WEEKEND.
THOMPSON
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
ALL OF OUR TERMINALS SHOULD STAY IN A VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE COULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
LATER THIS EVENING (AFTER 00Z) ON THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
ALTHOUGH STORM PROBABILITIES ARE VERY LOW TO HAVE ANY IMPACTS ON
OUR TERMINALS IN WESTERN OK AND ADJACENT NORTHERN TX. A BIT BREEZY
ACROSS OUR TERMINALS AS SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY
15-16Z AT 10-15 KTS GUSTING 20-25 KTS. BY 01Z SURFACE WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND BACK MORE SOUTHERLY. ANOTHER BUT STRONGER 40-45 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH BY 06Z WHICH COULD
RESULT IN LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVER ALL OF OUR TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 97 79 96 78 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 101 78 100 78 / 10 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 100 77 99 77 / 10 0 0 0
GAGE OK 100 79 102 80 / 10 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 93 78 94 79 / 10 10 0 0
DURANT OK 94 77 95 78 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ007-008-013-020.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...68
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