634
FXUS64 KOUN 111707
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1207 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 224 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORM EARLY THIS MORNING.
- HEAT INDICES 95 TO NEAR 105 AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
- STORMS LIKELY TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAS WEAKENED AND BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD,
BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF THIS WEAKENING BAND. THESE
MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING LATER THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT MOVED INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA FRIDAY AND HAS BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY. THE WEST TEXAS MESONET ALSO SHOWS AN AREA OF
WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A LINE STRETCHING FROM GAGE OK DOWN TOWARD
LUBBOCK WITH SOUTH WINDS EAST OF THIS WIND SHIFT TO WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS WEST OF IT, ALTHOUGH THE WIND SPEEDS ARE RATHER WEAK.
THROUGH TODAY, THE FRONT IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY DRIFT
SLOWLY SOUTH AS SURFACE PRESSURE RISES IN THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BEHIND A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THAT
AREA. BY MID AFTERNOON, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR THIS FRONT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTH. STRONG AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR SUPPORTING STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS. HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT WARM
AND LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR SUGGEST MELTING WHICH WILL KEEP THE HAIL
THREAT SOMEWHAT IN CHECK.
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT WILL BE COUNTERACTED BY HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THERE IS A 5-10
DEGREE INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SO HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL AGAIN BE
IN THE 95-105 RANGE THROUGHOUT THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING
NEAR THE FRONT AS IT DRIFTS SOUTH BEFORE FINALLY BEFORE FINALLY
DECREASING TOWARDS SUNRISE. GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS. THE WINDS THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE ARE RELATIVELY
WEAK, SO STORM MOTIONS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW WHICH COULD LEAD TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. STORMS WILL DECREASE AGAIN TOWARD SUNRISE
SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DEVELOP AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES NEAR THE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. AGAIN, STRONG OR ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH WIND BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL AGAIN BE 95-105 ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
MONDAY'S STORM CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON EVOLUTION OF THE WEATHER
PATTERN THIS WEEKEND. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE FRONT
WILL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH INTO TEXAS AND THE CHANCES OF STORMS WILL
BE LOWER ON MONDAY THAN ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY, BUT IF THE FRONT
REMAINS CLOSER TO THE AREA, STORM CHANCES MAY BE A LITTLE HIGHER
AGAIN, MOST LIKELY IN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. BUT WITH
THE EXPECTATION THAT THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH, FORECAST HEAT INDEX
VALUES MAY LOWER SLIGHTLY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH FEWER AREAS
REACHING TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO SHIFT THE PRIMARY MID-LEVEL RIDGE
INTO AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES
EARLY IN THE WEEK, WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
WEEK FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS. BUT THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THAT WILL AFFECT
THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE AS WE GET LATER INTO THE WEEK. SO
WHILE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE, IT
GENERALLY LOOKS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW WITH
A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
WHILE PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD, SCATTERED CONVECTION BY THIS EVENING WILL OFFER
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF CATEGORY REDUCTION(S).
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY THIS EVENING
(AFTER 20-22 UTC) ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND PROGRESS SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE RED RIVER TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS AND VIS REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR STORMS.
SAFE TRAVELS!
UNGAR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 96 74 93 71 / 30 50 20 20
HOBART OK 98 74 94 71 / 0 30 30 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 98 76 96 72 / 0 10 40 40
GAGE OK 95 70 93 69 / 10 20 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 91 72 90 69 / 20 20 10 0
DURANT OK 97 77 93 73 / 0 20 40 50
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...09
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page