855
FXUS64 KOUN 121708
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1208 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1206 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
- SCATTERED STORMS THIS MORNING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- LOWER TEMPERATURES TODAY, BUT STILL HIGH HEAT INDICES.
- ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY EVENING PUSHED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SOUTHWEST, WHICH IN TURN HAS BEEN A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THESE STORMS
HAVE BEEN EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS WITH WEATHER STATIONS
REPORTING RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 INCHES IN AN HOUR WITH THE
HEAVIEST STORMS. THESE LIKELY WILL PERSIST AND SPREAD SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATER THIS
MORNING. BUT THESE STORMS WILL HAVE LEFT MULTIPLE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA. THE SPECIFICS OF WHERE WE SEE
REDEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY WILL DEPEND SOMEWHAT ON WHERE THE
BOUNDARIES ARE LOCATED AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. THE HIGHER
POTENTIAL SHOULD GENERALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THOUGH. A FEW STRONG AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, WITH WIND BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO MID 90S. BUT HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TODAY (ESPECIALLY
WHERE WE HAVE BEEN RECEIVING HEAVY RAINS THIS MORNING), THAT THE
HEAT INDICES WILL REACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS IN SOME AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE SCENARIO WILL BE THE
SAME ON THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PERSISTING OVERNIGHT AND DIMINISHING
IN THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER EACH DAY THE FOCUS IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH. HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE BELOW
MID-JULY AVERAGES, AND EXPECTATION IS THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
NOT BE AS HIGH AS THE BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHIFTS SOUTH,
ALTHOUGH THAT COULD BE MODERATED BY EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN AREAS
THAT HAVE BEEN RECEIVING HEAVY RAINFALL.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THOUGHTS ON THE LONGER TERM FORECAST AS WE MOVE
INTO A PATTERN WITH FEWER RAIN CHANCES. BUT AGAIN THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES WITH HOW THE UPPER PATTERN EVOLVES THROUGH THE WEEK.
THE ECMWF IS NOW BUILDING A STRONGER RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
EAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE WEST OF OUR AREA INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.
REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS IS LIKELY IN FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
POTENTIALLY OUR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE THOSE STORMS PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA. TO THE NORTH,
CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE ZONE THAT RECEIVED RAIN
LAST NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THIS, BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR ARE
POSSIBLE, THOUGH CEILINGS SHOULD MOSTLY BE VFR. STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE NEAR/SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER TONIGHT.
MEISTER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 71 90 70 90 / 20 20 10 10
HOBART OK 70 91 69 91 / 30 20 20 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 71 92 70 91 / 40 50 20 20
GAGE OK 68 91 67 91 / 20 10 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 69 88 69 89 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 73 91 73 90 / 40 40 10 20
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...04
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