590
FXUS64 KOUN 121833
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
133 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 127 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
- SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT NEAR THE RED RIVER, A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE.
- SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION HAS PRODUCED MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH A MCV OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL BE FOCI FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS WILL BE
ALONG THE RED RIVER INTO NORTH TEXAS. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL AS SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS REMAIN HIGH AT 1.5-2
INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
MAY SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE RED RIVER
OVERNIGHT, PERHAPS STRETCHING INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. OTHERWISE,
ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA STAYING DRY OVERNIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AS WE GO INTO THE WORK WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING US INTO WEAK EAST AND NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT. AS IT
DOES WE WILL SEE SEVERAL MINOR SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE AREA FROM
EAST TO WEST THIS WEEK.
ON MONDAY WE WILL CONTINUE SEE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS WEAK UPPER FLOW FROM THE
NORTHEAST WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THINGS OUT OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT TO SEE SLIGHTLY "COOLER" TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S WITH A LIGHT EAST WIND.
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL SHIFT WEST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER EITHER
MONDAY OR TUESDAY. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES AND WINDS, TUESDAY
SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND LIGHT EAST WINDS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THOUGHTS ON THE LONGER TERM FORECAST AS WE MOVE
INTO A PATTERN WITH FEWER RAIN CHANCES. BUT AGAIN THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES WITH HOW THE UPPER PATTERN EVOLVES THROUGH THE WEEK.
THE ECMWF IS NOW BUILDING A STRONGER RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
EAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE WEST OF OUR AREA INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.
REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS IS LIKELY IN FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
POTENTIALLY OUR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE THOSE STORMS PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA. TO THE NORTH,
CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE ZONE THAT RECEIVED RAIN
LAST NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THIS, BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR ARE
POSSIBLE, THOUGH CEILINGS SHOULD MOSTLY BE VFR. STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE NEAR/SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER TONIGHT.
MEISTER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 70 90 69 89 / 10 10 10 20
HOBART OK 69 91 68 90 / 30 20 20 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 70 92 70 91 / 30 40 20 30
GAGE OK 68 91 66 91 / 10 20 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 68 88 68 88 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 73 91 72 90 / 40 30 20 30
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...04
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