077
FXUS64 KOUN 131113
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
613 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 609 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
- LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED PRIMARILY TO NORTH TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TODAY AND TOMORROW.
- SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO NORTH TEXAS WITH EAST/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA (EXCEPT FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA NEAR THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS). WITH THIS THE PRIMARY
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHIFTS TO NORTH TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA, CLOSER TO THIS BOUNDARY.
WITHIN THE LAST 20-30 MINUTES, SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS HAVE
BEEN PROJECTING SOME OF THIS DEVELOPMENT, THEY VARY QUITE A BIT ON
WHERE AND HOW PROLONGED THESE ECHOES WILL BE. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS
DOES NOT SHOW SIGNIFICANT ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED TODAY. WE WILL
WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THESE SHOWERS AND MAY HAVE TO INCREASE OR
EXPAND POPS FROM WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST GRIDS.
WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH AND THE RIDGE AXIS PUSHING
TOWARD NORTHERN OKLAHOMA FROM THE SURFACE HIGH NEAR FORT DODGE
IOWA, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TODAY.
ALTHOUGH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS MAY STILL HAVE HEAT INDICES APPROACH
TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE SOUTH.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
THE SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A GENERALLY SIMILAR
POSITION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH IN OR NEAR
IOWA AND THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS DOWN INTO KANSAS OR OKLAHOMA. AND
WE REMAIN SOUTH OF THE VERY STRONG 600 DM 500 MB RIDGE PARKED OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT HAS GIVEN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THEIR HEAT
WAVE. THIS PATTERN ACTUALLY KEEPS OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
BELOW MID-JULY HIGHS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO PRIMARILY BE DIURNAL OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, AND PRIMARILY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE
BY A FEW DECAMETERS AND REORIENT THROUGH THE WEAK. THE CURRENT
CONSENSUS IS THAT SOME FORM OF UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE GULF COAST AND THEN EVENTUALLY
EVOLVING TOWARD A MORE CLASSIC UPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
WHILE THIS KEEPS THE HIGHEST HEAT POTENTIAL TO THE WEST, IT DOES
PUSH US TO WARM BACK ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS PATTERN DOES ALSO SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL GENERALLY BE LOW LATE THIS WEEK, ALTHOUGH SOME DIURNAL
CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE SPECIFICS OF HOW THE
OVERALL PATTERN EVOLVES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
SOME LOW STRATUS (LIFR) HAS MOVED INTO A COUPLE OF TAF SITES EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH MVFR/VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD/AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT WHICH WILL ALSO
LEAD TO SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
RED RIVER. SOME SHOWERS ALSO CONTINUE IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
OK WHICH MAY AFFECT THE KDUA TAF ALTHOUGH CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE
THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE TAF SITE.
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON BUT
CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN TAF.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 91 70 90 70 / 0 0 10 10
HOBART OK 93 69 91 68 / 0 0 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 93 69 92 69 / 10 10 20 10
GAGE OK 93 67 92 67 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 88 69 89 69 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 89 71 90 71 / 40 10 20 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...25
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