378
FXUS64 KOUN 140323
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1023 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1021 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
- LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED PRIMARILY TO NORTH TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THURSDAY.
- SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK BEFORE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL
BE AN AREA OF BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND IN PROXIMITY TO A
RESIDUAL MCV. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A STRONG TO POSSIBLY
LOW END SEVERE STORM GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE
PRESENT (ML CAPE 1000-1500 J/KG).
OTHERWISE WILL SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL,
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW AND MIDDLE 90S, WITH EAST
WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE, BUT
COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVERNIGHT ALONG THE RED RIVER.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL
ELONGATE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY WITH A MORE
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MUCH OF THE BETTER FORCING
WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA, HOWEVER A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE WEST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND THIS MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY ON
TUESDAY.
IN ADDITION, SURFACE RIDGE WILL POKE DOWN SOUTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO TEXAS AIDING IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN
CHECK WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.
AGAIN, NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT.
AS WE GO INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE REORIENTATES ITSELF
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WITH AN
STRONGER WAVE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM THE EAST. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO AT LEAST THE
EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG STORMS
ONCE AGAIN LOOK POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE
BY A FEW DECAMETERS AND REORIENT THROUGH THE WEAK. THE CURRENT
CONSENSUS IS THAT SOME FORM OF UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE GULF COAST AND THEN EVENTUALLY
EVOLVING TOWARD A MORE CLASSIC UPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
WHILE THIS KEEPS THE HIGHEST HEAT POTENTIAL TO THE WEST, IT DOES
PUSH US TO WARM BACK ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS PATTERN DOES ALSO SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL GENERALLY BE LOW LATE THIS WEEK, ALTHOUGH SOME DIURNAL
CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE SPECIFICS OF HOW THE
OVERALL PATTERN EVOLVES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PROBABILITIES FOR FOG ARE IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OK, BUT IF IT OCCURS IS EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY WITH
VISIBILITIES MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 91 70 89 69 / 10 0 20 10
HOBART OK 93 68 90 67 / 0 10 20 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 93 69 91 68 / 20 10 30 10
GAGE OK 93 66 91 65 / 0 0 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 89 69 88 69 / 0 0 10 0
DURANT OK 89 71 89 70 / 40 10 40 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...08
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