788
FXUS64 KOUN 140636
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
136 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 132 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG.
- SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK BEFORE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
SOME SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TX
AND MAYBE FAR SOUTHERN OK OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHEST
CHANCES IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH TX ALTHOUGH WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-40
CORRIDOR. WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO MAYBE MARGINALLY SEVERE
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, THE IMPACTS WITH THE
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
WITH EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING ALOFT AND LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT THE SURFACE, THE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
RED RIVER AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT BUT MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A MID-LVL
DISTURBANCE/SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM EAST TO WEST. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF I-44. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG. ON THURSDAY, CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
MAINLY IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN DAYTIME HEATING CAN
HELP IN DEVELOPMENT WITH THE RAIN ENDING OR DECREASING IN COVERAGE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, THE STREAK OF NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW/MID 90S. LOWS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. DESPITE THE "COOLER" THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID JULY, HEAT INDICES ARE STILL HOT PARTS
OF THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, APPROACHING 100.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
THE UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ENDING OVER THE REGION AND THE
AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AT THE
SFC, WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A WARM UP TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES STARTING OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
INDICES WILL ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE AGAIN.
IN TERMS OF RAIN, THERE ARE SOME CHANCES ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER MID-
LVL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUT WITH THE
PATTERN SHIFT RAIN CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SHUT OFF THIS
WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PROBABILITIES FOR FOG ARE IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OK, BUT IF IT OCCURS IS EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY WITH
VISIBILITIES MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 89 69 89 70 / 10 10 20 10
HOBART OK 90 68 90 69 / 10 10 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 91 68 90 69 / 20 20 30 10
GAGE OK 91 66 90 67 / 0 0 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 88 69 88 70 / 10 0 10 10
DURANT OK 89 71 89 71 / 20 20 30 20
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...08
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