861
FXUS64 KOUN 141144
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
644 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 643 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG.
- SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK BEFORE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH
VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/4 OF A MILE AT KADH AND KDUA, AND 3/4 OF A
MILE REPORTED AT KADM. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA, AND EXTENDING NORTH UP INTO HUGHES,
SEMINOLE AND POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES BASED ON THE SATELLITE SIGNAL.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
SOME SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TX
AND MAYBE FAR SOUTHERN OK OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHEST
CHANCES IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH TX ALTHOUGH WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-40
CORRIDOR. WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO MAYBE MARGINALLY SEVERE
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, THE IMPACTS WITH THE
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
WITH EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING ALOFT AND LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT THE SURFACE, THE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
RED RIVER AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT BUT MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A MID-LVL
DISTURBANCE/SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM EAST TO WEST. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF I-44. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG. ON THURSDAY, CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
MAINLY IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN DAYTIME HEATING CAN
HELP IN DEVELOPMENT WITH THE RAIN ENDING OR DECREASING IN COVERAGE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, THE STREAK OF NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW/MID 90S. LOWS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. DESPITE THE "COOLER" THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID JULY, HEAT INDICES ARE STILL HOT PARTS
OF THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, APPROACHING 100.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
THE UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ENDING OVER THE REGION AND THE
AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AT THE
SFC, WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A WARM UP TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES STARTING OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
INDICES WILL ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE AGAIN.
IN TERMS OF RAIN, THERE ARE SOME CHANCES ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER MID-
LVL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUT WITH THE
PATTERN SHIFT RAIN CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SHUT OFF THIS
WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
A BAND OF STRATUS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED FROM KDUA
AND KHHW UP TOWARD KADH WITH SATELLITE SHOWING THIS EXTENDS UP
TOWARD KSRE AS WELL. AS FAR AS THE TAF SITES, THIS WILL PRIMARILY
AFFECT KDUA WITH VISIBILITY CURRENTLY REPORTED AT LESS THAN
1/4SM. SOME STRATUS AND FOG WILL PERSIST INTO THE MID-MORNING
BEFORE IMPROVING. AT THE OTHER TAF SITES, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER THE PROBABILITY AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES IS LESS THAN 30
PERCENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 89 69 89 70 / 10 10 20 10
HOBART OK 90 68 90 69 / 10 10 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 91 68 90 69 / 20 20 30 10
GAGE OK 91 66 90 67 / 0 0 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 88 69 88 70 / 10 0 10 10
DURANT OK 89 71 89 71 / 20 20 30 20
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ030>032-
041>043-047-048-051-052.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...26
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