524
FXUS64 KOUN 161704
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1204 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1159 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
- RAIN/STORM CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE.
- SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK BEFORE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT RETURNS SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
A MID-LVL DISTURBANCE MEANDERING OVER TEXAS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS TO PARTS OF THE AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN
WESTERN NORTH TX AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE A CONCERN WITH PWATS OF 1.75"-2+" POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE
AREA. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BUT CHANCES DON'T GO
COMPLETELY AWAY.
THE STREAK OF NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW/MID 90S.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
A MID-LVL DISTURBANCE CONTINUING TO MEANDER OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN CHANCES TO PARTS OF
THE FA INTO FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN (PWATS CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE 1.75" TO 2+" RANGE) AND GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN.
THE MID-LVL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION ENOUGH TO NO LONGER BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ON
SATURDAY. MODELS ALSO SHOW THE REGION BEGINNING TO BECOME MORE
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER HIGH WHICH WILL HELP LEAD TO THE DRIER
FORECAST.
NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN FRIDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER HIGH CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER HIGH COULD
BE CENTERED OVER OR VERY NEAR THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRIER AND HOTTER FORECAST. THERE WILL BE LESS
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 90S AND
TRIPLE DIGITS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE WITH HEAT
INDICES APPROACHING OR ABOVE 105 POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
LIFTING NORTHWARD OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS AND THROUGH WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH SOME
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AT TAF SITES SOUTH OF I-40 THIS
AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS UNTIL A LITTLE MORE HEATING
BREAKS THE STRATOCU UP. GUIDANCE TONIGHT IS SUGGESTIVE OF A LATE
MOISTURE SURGE TOWARD DAYBREAK, WHICH MEANS WE VERY WELL COULD BE
LOOKING AT ANOTHER SPONTANEOUS MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW
AT SUNRISE.
MEISTER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 71 89 72 93 / 20 30 10 10
HOBART OK 69 90 70 93 / 40 30 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 70 91 72 94 / 30 40 10 10
GAGE OK 68 91 69 94 / 10 10 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 72 90 73 94 / 10 30 10 10
DURANT OK 73 92 75 95 / 20 20 10 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...04
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