533
FXUS64 KOUN 010343
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1043 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1027 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN CONCERN.
- DANGEROUS HEAT RETURNS NEXT WEEK AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE OVER
THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
ANOTHER DAY OF DANGEROUS HEAT TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.
AT MID-DAY, THE FRONT HAD MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL OK
WITH THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR PONCA CITY AND ENID, TO
WATONGA AND ERICK OK. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LOW THAT CAUSED THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
CONTINUES TO MOVE SE INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE "COOLER" AIR IS LAGGING A BIT BEHIND THE FRONT SO INITIALLY THE
ONLY AFFECTS ARE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AND N. WITH THE "COOLER" AIR
LAGGING, ANOTHER HOT TO VERY HOT AFTERNOON IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF
THE FA, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE AREAS THAT REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS ARE EXPECTED, EXCEPT FOR MAYBE NW OK. THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE "PRE-FRONTAL TORCHING" (LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE)
WILL LIKELY AID IN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO OR ABOVE 105. HIGH HEAT
INDICES ARE ALSO EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. AT MID-DAY, MANY OF THE
LOCATIONS IN THE FA HAVE ALREADY SEEN TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDEX
VALUES. HEAT INDICES OF 105+ ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
AREAS REACHING 110+. WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF THE
HEAT ADVISORY AND EXTREME HEAT WARNING WHICH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9
PM.
MUCH OF THE SCATTERED ACTIVITY THAT MOVED ACROSS PARTS OF THE FA
THIS MORNING IS DIMINISHING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED NEAR THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE,
GENERALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS WILL SUGGEST THAT STRONG OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE/END LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
MODELS SHOW NW TO N FLOW ALOFT THE REST OF TODAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. AT THE SURFACE, THE "COOLER" AIR WILL EVENTUALLY
MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND TODAY'S FRONT WITH NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO A LESS
HOT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE LOW 90S IN NORTH CENTRAL OK TO THE UPPER 90S/AROUND
100 IN SOUTHWEST OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX. MORE MILD NIGHTS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY THIS "LESS HOT" PERIOD
WILL BE FAIRLY BRIEF WITH A RETURN OF THE HOTTER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
EXCESSIVE HEAT RETURNS NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE ADVANCES FROM
THE WEST. RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT ZERO, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE LOW
THROUGH THURSDAY.
THOMPSON
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
NORTH WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH WINDS BECOMING GUSTIER FROM MID MORNING TO LATE
AFTERNOON SATURDAY. OTHER THAN SOME CIRRUS OVERNIGHT FROM DECAYING
SHOWER ACTIVITY, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73 93 69 93 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 72 97 67 98 / 20 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 75 99 69 99 / 30 0 0 0
GAGE OK 68 94 64 96 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 70 91 67 92 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 77 96 71 96 / 20 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...08
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