865
FXUS64 KOUN 051121
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
621 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 610 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
- LOW SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, MOSTLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
- HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT AND AT LEAST A MODERATE HEAT RISK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
TODAY'S MAIN STORY WILL BE THE HEAT WITH SOME VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
MOISTURE RETURN WILL START TO PUSH SOME OF OUR HEAT INDICES ABOVE
105. WE'VE EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY INTO MORE OF SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE MORE LIKELY. PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA AS WELL
(ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED SOME IN THESE AREAS TOO), BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER TRANSLATES TO LOWER CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE OK / KS BORDER WILL RESULT IN SOME
VERY LOW (10%) POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE VICINITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
DOWNBURST WINDS. LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
DAY
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH POPS THURSDAY / FRIDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPEARS DISPLACED A BIT FARTHER NORTH,
WITH MOST OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NOW CONFINED TO 30-40% CHANCE OF
RAIN. HIGHEST CHANCES ARE THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THERE
IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DOWNBURST WINDS.
MOISTURE RETURN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH UP HEAT INDICES ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, RESULTING IN 105+ HEAT INDICES ACROSS A BROADER AREA.
UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT DUE TO POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER.
DAY
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL MARK THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO REASSERT DOMINANCE OVER OUR REGION. AS THE
FRONT WASHES OUT, WE SHOULD SEE DEWPOINTS START TO MIX OUT AGAIN
ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER HEAT INDICES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DAY
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS NEAR KPNC AND KSWO THIS MORNING. MUCH OF ANY
RAIN FALLING AT THE MOMENT IS LIKELY EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING
THE SURFACE. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA IS ANTICIPATED TO LIFT NORTHWARD WITH SSW WINDS EXPECTED
TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY COULD SAG BACK INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE
EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 102 77 101 77 / 0 0 0 10
HOBART OK 103 77 103 77 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 103 77 103 77 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 101 72 101 73 / 10 10 10 20
PONCA CITY OK 100 75 100 76 / 20 10 20 40
DURANT OK 101 78 101 76 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ018>020-024>026-028>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...01
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