501
FXUS64 KOUN 051725
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1217 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
- LOW SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, MOSTLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
- HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT AND AT LEAST A MODERATE HEAT RISK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
TODAY'S MAIN STORY WILL BE THE HEAT WITH SOME VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
MOISTURE RETURN WILL START TO PUSH SOME OF OUR HEAT INDICES ABOVE
105. WE'VE EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY INTO MORE OF SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE MORE LIKELY. PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA AS WELL
(ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED SOME IN THESE AREAS TOO), BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER TRANSLATES TO LOWER CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE OK / KS BORDER WILL RESULT IN SOME
VERY LOW (10%) POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE VICINITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
DOWNBURST WINDS. LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
DAY
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH POPS THURSDAY / FRIDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPEARS DISPLACED A BIT FARTHER NORTH,
WITH MOST OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NOW CONFINED TO 30-40% CHANCE OF
RAIN. HIGHEST CHANCES ARE THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THERE
IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DOWNBURST WINDS.
MOISTURE RETURN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH UP HEAT INDICES ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, RESULTING IN 105+ HEAT INDICES ACROSS A BROADER AREA.
UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT DUE TO POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER.
DAY
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL MARK THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO REASSERT DOMINANCE OVER OUR REGION. AS THE
FRONT WASHES OUT, WE SHOULD SEE DEWPOINTS START TO MIX OUT AGAIN
ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER HEAT INDICES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DAY
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS MAY
DEVELOP IN NORTHERN OK LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT CHANCES TOO
LOW FOR MENTION IN TAF. IF STORMS DEVELOP, GUSTY, VARIABLE WINDS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE. A BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO PARTS OF
THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH WOULD CAUSE A WIND SHIFT. OTHERWISE,
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 102 77 101 77 / 10 0 0 10
HOBART OK 103 77 103 77 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 103 77 103 77 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 101 72 101 73 / 10 10 10 20
PONCA CITY OK 100 75 100 76 / 30 10 20 40
DURANT OK 101 78 101 76 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ018>020-024>026-
028>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ018>020-
024>026-028>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...25
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