736
FXUS64 KOUN 060958
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
458 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 452 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
- LOW SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY, MOSTLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
- HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT AND AT LEAST A MODERATE HEAT RISK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
TODAY'S WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S--HOT AND
MOSTLY DRY, ASIDE FROM SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE NORTH. THE
BIGGEST CHANGE IS THAT RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO DWINDLE FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH POPS NOW IN THE 20-30% RANGE.
TODAY'S HEAT INDEX MAP PROBABLY WON'T LOOK TOO MUCH DIFFERENT FROM
YESTERDAY'S. EXPECT HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-108 RANGE WITH THE HEAT
POCKETS LIKELY FORMING IN NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER ADDS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA,
THOUGH IF YESTERDAY WAS ANY INDICATION, I WOULDN'T EXPECT TOO MUCH
IN THE WAY OF HEAT RELIEF. WE'VE EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY BASED ON
YESTERDAY'S HEAT INDICES.
A BOUNDARY SITS STALLED NEAR THE OK / KS BORDER. THIS WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (10-30%) TODAY AND
TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST CHANCES FOR A ROUND EARLY THIS MORNING
(AIDED BY THE LOW LEVEL JET) AND A ROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING (AIDED BY DIURNAL HEATING). WITH THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION,
THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT
COULD SUPPORT SOME HAIL PRODUCING SUPERCELLS AS WELL.
DAY
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
RAIN CHANCES PEAK (AT 20-30%) EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND EXTEND DOWN
TO THE I-40 CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHER THAN SLIGHTLY MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS, FRIDAY WILL LOOK MUCH
LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN RISING INTO THE 100-108
DEGREE RANGE. THAT SAID, UNCERTAINTY WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
IS PROBABLY HIGHEST ON FRIDAY AND THAT COULD IMPACT TEMPERATURES.
HOT AND DRY AGAIN ON SATURDAY (BUT WITHOUT THE LOW RAIN CHANCES OR
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER). DEWPOINTS MAY MIX OUT A BIT MORE, KEEPING
HEAT INDICES A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS ALSO MEANS
WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS WELL.
DAY
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE FORECAST. MOSTLY HOT AND DRY, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME
HINTS THAT RAIN CHANCES MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH OCCASIONALLY.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN EARLY IN THE WEEK
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
DAY
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 452 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
A LINEAR COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY NEARING THE KANSAS
BORDER AND TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
ON WHETHER THESE WILL MAINTAIN UPON APPROACHING KWWR AND KPNC,
AND THEREFORE, ADDED PROB30'S AT THESE TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE WITH PERHAPS GUSTY
WINDS TO 25 MPH.
OTHERWISE, VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODESTLY BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS VEERING TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODELS SUGGEST STORMS HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE OF FORMING NEAR KPNC.
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE DOWNBURST
WINDS UP TO 70 MPH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 101 76 100 75 / 0 10 20 20
HOBART OK 103 76 103 74 / 0 0 20 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 103 77 102 76 / 0 0 10 10
GAGE OK 100 72 102 70 / 10 10 30 20
PONCA CITY OK 99 74 98 73 / 10 30 20 10
DURANT OK 101 77 100 76 / 0 0 10 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ005>008-011>013-017>020-024>032-039>048-050>052.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ090.
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...01
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