788
FXUS64 KOUN 062320
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
620 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 131 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
- LOW SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY, MOSTLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
- HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO WEEK WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT AND
AT LEAST A MODERATE HEAT RISK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING ENDED UP A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE THAN
FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN OK AND HAVE LED TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL OK AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS HAS
LIMITED HEATING IN THESE AREAS AND IT APPEARS INCREASINGLY
UNLIKELY HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA CAN BE MET ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
OK. FARTHER SOUTH, GREATER INSOLATION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
ONCE AGAIN SOAR TO NEAR OR OVER 100 DEGREES WITH HEAT INDICES OVER
105.
MORNING CLOUDS/SHOWERS HAVE ALSO LED TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING STORM CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN OK REMAIN MORE STABLE THAN AREAS FARTHER SOUTH/WEST.
PROBABLY THE GREATEST RELATIVE CHANCE FOR STORM REDEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE SOUTH/WEST FRINGE OF THE CLOUD
SHIELD, WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND/OR RESIDUAL OUTFLOW COULD
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING PEAK HEATING, BUT CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT STORMS FARTHER NORTH. FOR NOW HAVE MAINTAINED
BROAD 20-30% POPS FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-40 THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WHERE A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS ALSO IN
PLACE. THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THE STRONGER STORMS TODAY WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS STORMS COLLAPSE. SHOWERS/STORMS COULD
LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS, BUT EXPECT STORM INTENSITY TO WANE WITH TIME THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING BUT EXPECT TO SEE A
LULL IN ACTIVITY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW-LEVEL
JET WEAKENS. SIMILAR TO TODAY, REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE FAVORED ALONG
ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AND/OR CENTRAL OK DURING PEAK HEATING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ONCE AGAIN, THE STRONGER STORMS WILL POSE A RISK FOR STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR OR OVER 100 ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX, WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN NORTH-CENTRAL OK WHERE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MORE EXTENSIVE.
UPPER RIDGING WILL START TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AS THE
WEAK FRONT SIMULTANEOUSLY DISSIPATES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO DRIER
CONDITIONS AND LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER SATURDAY COMPARED TO
THE LAST FEW DAYS. TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
WITH HIGHS 100-105 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WARE
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE FORECAST. MOSTLY HOT AND DRY, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME
HINTS THAT RAIN CHANCES MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH OCCASIONALLY.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN EARLY IN THE WEEK
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
DAY
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
OUTSIDE OF LOW POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED RAIN/THUNDER AT TIMES DURING
THE PERIOD, VFR CATEGORY IS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR GUSTY-
ERRATIC WINDS AND VIS REDUCTION WITH PRECIPITATION CORES WILL BE
TOWARDS DAYBREAK FRIDAY, WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE WORKING NORTH-TO-
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
SAFE TRAVELS!
UNGAR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 76 100 75 101 / 20 20 20 0
HOBART OK 76 103 75 103 / 0 20 20 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 77 103 76 103 / 0 0 10 0
GAGE OK 73 102 70 102 / 20 20 20 0
PONCA CITY OK 74 97 73 101 / 40 40 20 0
DURANT OK 77 101 77 100 / 0 0 10 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005-011-017>019-
024>032-039>048-050>052.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ018>020-
023>032-035>048-050>052.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ090.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ085-086-089-
090.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...09
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