893
FXUS64 KOUN 070631
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
131 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 125 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
- LOW SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY, MOSTLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
- HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO WEEK WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT AND
AT LEAST A MODERATE HEAT RISK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
THE LOW LEVEL JET, AS IT EXTENDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND CURVES
EASTWARD INTO KANSAS, WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF CONVECTION
DURING THESE PRE-DAWN HOURS. EXPECTATION IS FOR MOST OF THIS TO STAY
JUST OUTSIDE OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN BORDERS THROUGH ABOUT 7AM, BUT
THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE A SHOWER OR STORM COULD SNEAK OVER.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE POST-DAWN MORNING HOURS, THERE'S SOME SIGNAL
THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN EASTERN KANSAS WILL START TO
MIGRATE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THAT
SAID, UNCERTAINTY IS MODERATELY HIGH FOR SPATIAL EXTENT AND
LONGEVITY OF THIS CONVECTION.
AS THE SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE RIDGE, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, STARTING AROUND I-40 AND MIGRATING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. CAMS SUGGEST HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE
PANHANDLES AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH A GAP IN BETWEEN (HOWEVER,
MODEL AGREEMENT IS LOW). DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD.
HEAT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A MAIN IMPACT TODAY, AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
RAIN WITH ITS ASSOCIATE CLOUD COVER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A KEY
UNCERTAINTY (ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA). A HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS.
DAY
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
HOT AND MAINLY DRY SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE BACK IN.
LATEST MODELS LAG THE UPPER SHORTWAVE, GIVING US SOME LINGERING LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS LATE AS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THEY'RE ALSO SUBTLY BACKING OFF ON MIXING OUT DEWPOINTS
MEANING SATURDAY'S HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE ADVISORY RANGE
ACROSS A BROAD AREA AGAIN. WE'LL STILL BE WATCHING FOR ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA, THOUGH THAT POTENTIAL SEEMS A BIT MORE
LIMITED.
SUNDAY IS THE NEW SATURDAY AS OUR FORECAST IS NOW SHOWING THE FIRST
DAY OF THE WEEK AS WHEN RAIN CHANCES ARE GONE AND DEWPOINTS START TO
MIX OUT A LITTLE BIT. THE RESULT: SLIGHTLY LOWER HEAT INDICES AND
SLIGHTLY MORE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER OUT WEST.
DAY
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
RIDGING WILL KEEP US HOT AND DRY THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK NEXT WEEK
WITH SOME MODEST POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA MOST DAYS. AS WE ENTER THE MID WEEK PERIOD, THE RIDGE
STARTS TO SHIFT SOUTH, BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL ALSO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES
LATE IN THE WEEK, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AT THIS RANGE.
DAY
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
VFR CATEGORY WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE SCATTERED
RAIN/THUNDER REMAINS LIKELY ACROSS REGION, SPATIOTEMPORAL
INFORMATION REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN. THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION
INVOLVES POCKETS OF ACTIVITY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHERN INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ON FRIDAY MORNING, WITH POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TOWARDS THE RED RIVER.
FOR NOW, ONLY TERMINALS WITH "HIGHEST" CONFIDENCE HAVE WX/PROB30
MENTION, THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR ALL TERMINALS TO SEE AT LEAST A
BRIEF PERIOD OF REDUCED VIS AND GUSTY WINDS IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
SAFE TRAVELS!
UNGAR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 100 74 100 75 / 20 10 0 0
HOBART OK 102 73 103 75 / 20 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 102 75 103 75 / 0 20 10 0
GAGE OK 102 69 102 74 / 20 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 97 72 100 76 / 50 10 0 0
DURANT OK 100 76 100 75 / 10 30 10 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ018>020-023>032-035>048-050>052.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ085-086-089-090.
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...09
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