883
FXUS64 KOUN 071719
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1219 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1216 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
- LOW SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY, MOSTLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
- HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO WEEK WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT AND
AT LEAST A MODERATE HEAT RISK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
THE LOW LEVEL JET, AS IT EXTENDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND CURVES
EASTWARD INTO KANSAS, WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF CONVECTION
DURING THESE PRE-DAWN HOURS. EXPECTATION IS FOR MOST OF THIS TO STAY
JUST OUTSIDE OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN BORDERS THROUGH ABOUT 7AM, BUT
THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE A SHOWER OR STORM COULD SNEAK OVER.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE POST-DAWN MORNING HOURS, THERE'S SOME SIGNAL
THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN EASTERN KANSAS WILL START TO
MIGRATE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THAT
SAID, UNCERTAINTY IS MODERATELY HIGH FOR SPATIAL EXTENT AND
LONGEVITY OF THIS CONVECTION.
AS THE SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE RIDGE, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, STARTING AROUND I-40 AND MIGRATING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. CAMS SUGGEST HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE
PANHANDLES AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH A GAP IN BETWEEN (HOWEVER,
MODEL AGREEMENT IS LOW). DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD.
HEAT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A MAIN IMPACT TODAY, AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
RAIN WITH ITS ASSOCIATE CLOUD COVER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A KEY
UNCERTAINTY (ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA). A HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS.
DAY
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
HOT AND MAINLY DRY SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE BACK IN.
LATEST MODELS LAG THE UPPER SHORTWAVE, GIVING US SOME LINGERING LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS LATE AS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THEY'RE ALSO SUBTLY BACKING OFF ON MIXING OUT DEWPOINTS
MEANING SATURDAY'S HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE ADVISORY RANGE
ACROSS A BROAD AREA AGAIN. WE'LL STILL BE WATCHING FOR ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA, THOUGH THAT POTENTIAL SEEMS A BIT MORE
LIMITED.
SUNDAY IS THE NEW SATURDAY AS OUR FORECAST IS NOW SHOWING THE FIRST
DAY OF THE WEEK AS WHEN RAIN CHANCES ARE GONE AND DEWPOINTS START TO
MIX OUT A LITTLE BIT. THE RESULT: SLIGHTLY LOWER HEAT INDICES AND
SLIGHTLY MORE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER OUT WEST.
DAY
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
RIDGING WILL KEEP US HOT AND DRY THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK NEXT WEEK
WITH SOME MODEST POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA MOST DAYS. AS WE ENTER THE MID WEEK PERIOD, THE RIDGE
STARTS TO SHIFT SOUTH, BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL ALSO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES
LATE IN THE WEEK, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AT THIS RANGE.
DAY
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS THIS TAF PERIOD. CEILINGS MAY DROP TO MVFR
WITH THE STORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO
THIS EVENING BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW AT SOME SITES TO CURRENTLY
MENTION IN TAF. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND STRONG,
VARIABLE WINDS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE S AND SW THIS
AFTERNOON BACKING TO THE S AND SE THIS EVENING EXCEPT FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS THAT ARE AFFECTED BY OUTFLOW WHICH WOULD HAVE SOME
BIGGER SHIFTS IN WIND DIRECTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 100 74 100 75 / 30 20 0 0
HOBART OK 102 73 103 75 / 30 30 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 102 75 103 75 / 0 20 10 0
GAGE OK 102 69 102 74 / 30 20 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 94 72 100 76 / 50 10 0 0
DURANT OK 100 76 100 75 / 10 20 10 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ006>008-
011>013-017>020-023>032-035>048-050>052.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ018>020-023>032-
035>048-050>052.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ085-086-089-
090.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ085-086-089-090.
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...25
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