938
FXUS64 KOUN 230308
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1008 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1005 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
- EXCESSIVE HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MOST DAYS WITH
THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING STRONG WINDS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
A ~599 DAM MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS HAS PLACED
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF RIDGE WITH
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT FROM A WAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALLOWED FOR A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING'S STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM DOWNBURSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE LARGE AMOUNT OF DOWNDRAFT CAPE
(~1500 J/KG) AND THE HOT TEMPERATURES.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT IS LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND
SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST. THIS KEEPS THE MORE APPRECIABLE SYNOPTIC-
SCALE ASCENT TO OUR NORTHEAST.
MAHALE
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
HOTTER WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH THE EASTWARD EXPANSION OF
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN TANDEM WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE. DANGEROUS HEAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH A HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. PARTS OF THE HEAT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO
EXTREME HEAT WARNING ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AIR
TEMPERATURES AND/OR HEAT INDICES >110 DEG F.
THE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR
OR BELOW 20%, WHICH WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT AND VERY DRY FUELS, THE
TOTAL FIRE ENVIRONMENT (WEATHER + FUELS) WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
INITIAL ATTACK FIRES. AS A RESULT, A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED FOR TOMORROW. IN ADDITION, A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
WITH A DRY LIGHTNING THREAT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD ON
MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY TO THE NORTHEAST. VEERED
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN VERY HOT,
RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES (I.E., "PRE-FRONTAL TORCH") WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 115 DEG F ACROSS SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. IN ADDITION, WITH THE VEERED
LOW-LEVEL FLOW, AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE PRIMARY MITIGATING FACTOR
FOR A HIGHER-END FIRE WEATHER RISK IS WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED. NEVERTHELESS, A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY.
MAHALE
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
THIS BOUNDARY MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, BUT STILL BAKING
ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN APPROACHING 110
DEGREES. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST A BIT AS WELL
WHICH ALLOWS BETTER NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES (STILL ABOVE NORMAL). ALTHOUGH A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON, A BETTER
UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS AS WE GO INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING, AT LEAST TO
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA, A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO OKLAHOMA.
SCATTERED ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME CONTINUES TO BRING SOME MINOR SHORTWAVES
OVERHEAD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH VFR CEILINGS. THE STORMS IN WESTERN NORTH TX
ARE EXPECTED TO NOT AFFECT KSPS AFTER 06Z BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND ADD A MENTION IF NEEDED. OTHERWISE, SOME
MODELS ARE SHOWING A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS IN PARTS OF OK STARTING SUNDAY EVENING. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY(IES) WILL CAUSE SHIFTING/GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 75 103 80 107 / 10 10 10 0
HOBART OK 76 109 82 110 / 20 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 79 109 83 111 / 20 0 0 0
GAGE OK 71 105 73 103 / 0 0 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 72 95 73 100 / 10 10 10 0
DURANT OK 76 107 81 109 / 20 10 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ009>012-
014>019-021>048-050>052.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...25
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