440
FXUS64 KOUN 242021
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
321 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 320 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
- EXCESSIVE HEAT CONTINUES TOMORROW, WITH LESS HOT CONDITIONS
TOWARDS THE MIDWEEK.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
DANGEROUS HEAT IS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT THAT IS LOCATED IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA (I.E., "PRE-FRONTAL
TORCH"). TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA ARE IN THE MID 100S TO ABOVE
110 DEG F. WICHITA FALLS HAS ALREADY TIED THEIR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE.
THE VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND VERY HOT TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT HAS ALLOWED FOR ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE FALLEN BELOW 20% (AND
AS LOW AS 12%) WITH BREEZY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS. AS A RESULT, A
RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA THROUGH 9 PM THIS
EVENING.
OVERALL, THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD (<20%) WITH RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE TO WIND GUSTS FROM
DOWNBURSTS GIVEN THE VERY HOT CONDITIONS AND LARGE AMOUNT OF
DOWNDRAFT CAPE IN A DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
MAHALE
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
NO APPRECIABLE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE FRONT'S WAKE
FOR TOMORROW. AS A RESULT, DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE ONCE
AGAIN. WE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS FOR TOMORROW. WE ISSUED THE HEAT ADVISORY
WHERE WE HAVE THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE WHERE WE'LL HAVE THE HOTTEST
WEATHER. THERE IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY FARTHER NORTH WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER NEAR THE I-40
CORRIDOR. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE WILL HAVE TO EXPAND THE HEAT
ADVISORY FARTHER NORTH AND PERHAPS EVEN UPGRADE PARTS OF THE HEAT
ADVISORY TO AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING.
WITH THE VERY HOT CONDITIONS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, TRANSIENT
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER TOMORROW, SO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE LOWER THAN TODAY.
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL
RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST.
THE REMNANTS OF THIS COMPLEX WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE COMPLEX SHOULD WEAKEN
WITH TIME AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THERE WILL BE A STRONGER, REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT WILL
ADVANCE SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT
WILL RESULT IN MORE APPRECIABLE COLD AIR ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF
OKLAHOMA ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 90S DEG F WITH THE 100S DEG F
CONFINED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
MAHALE
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE/STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL
SUBTLY RETROGRADE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, PUTTING A CHECK ON
TEMPERATURES AND KEEPING THE DOOR OPEN FOR AT LEAST LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER "COOLER" (YET STILL ABOVE AVERAGE) DAY
ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT, WITH UPPER-90S TO NEAR-100F HIGHS ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS. THE CURRENT FORECAST WOULD
ADVERTISE THE LOWEST/LEAST AREAL COVERAGE OF HEAT HEADLINES THIS
DAY, THOUGH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW SURFACE FEATURES (NAMELY A
FRONT) EVOLVES ON WEDNESDAY. IT DOES CURRENTLY APPEAR THAT WE BEGIN
TO WARM MORE NOTABLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, AS ADVECTION OF WARMER
AIRMASSES RE-ESTABLISHES.
WHILE NO PERIOD STANDS OUT AMONGST THE REST IN TERMS OF RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES, OUR POSITION RELATIVE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST EPISODIC (LOW) CHANCES FROM THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THE WEEKEND (ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA).
UNGAR
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LLWS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AT KLAW/KSPS. A SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WESTWARD
NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH
ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR KOKC/KOUN THAT COULD PRODUCE
STRONG, GUSTY WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 77 101 75 96 / 20 10 30 20
HOBART OK 77 105 74 99 / 10 10 40 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 81 108 77 102 / 0 0 20 10
GAGE OK 71 99 67 94 / 0 20 60 20
PONCA CITY OK 72 97 72 93 / 0 0 10 20
DURANT OK 79 107 77 102 / 20 20 10 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ016>019-021-022-
026-030>032-042-043-048.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ023>025-
027>029-033>041-044>047-050>052.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ033>048-
050>052.
TX...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...01
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