558
FXUS64 KOUN 260524
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1224 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1222 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
- LESS HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
A ~598 DAM MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS NEW MEXICO
TODAY, WHICH PLACES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE'S INFLUENCE (WHICH IS WHY WE ARE NOT COMPLETELY
DRY). AT THE SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT FROM YESTERDAY HAS STALLED
NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR. DANGEROUS HEAT IS ONGOING NEAR AND SOUTH
OF STALLED FRONT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO 110 DEG
F AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. NORTH OF THE FRONT, IT IS
A BIT COOLER WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS.
THERE ARE TWO ZONES OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. ONE ZONE IS ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT GRAVITY WAVES FROM THUNDERSTORMS IN KANSAS
MAY HAVE SERVED AS A TRIGGER FOR THIS ACTIVITY. A SECOND ZONE IS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE LIKELY SERVED AS
A TRIGGER FOR THIS ACTIVITY. THESE WAVES MAY CONTINUE MOVING
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON (ALONG WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW). THEREFORE, THERE WILL
AT LEAST BE A CHANCE OF STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE POTENTIAL HAZARDS
WITH ANY STORMS.
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE,
A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
APPROACH NORTHWEST/WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE WILL BE A RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE COMPLEX
OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST.
MAHALE
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE REMNANTS OF THE COMPLEX DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE
REMNANTS MAY BECOME A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) THAT WILL
DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR REDEVELOPMENT IS
ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
THERE WILL BE A STRONGER, REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT WILL
ADVANCE SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT
WILL RESULT IN MORE APPRECIABLE COLD AIR ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF
OKLAHOMA ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 90S DEG F WITH THE 100S DEG F
CONFINED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE EFFECTIVE COLD
FRONT WILL ADVANCE AND THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE
MORNING CONVECTION. THEREFORE, WE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW AT THIS TIME. THERE A CHANCE ONE MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THESE STORMS MAY STAY
WEST OF OUR AREA (DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT ADVANCES
TOMORROW). THE LESS HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH
CONTINUED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.
MAHALE
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
BY FRIDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO EXPAND BACK EASTWARD. AS THIS
OCCURS, A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH WINDS RETURN. AS THIS
OCCURS WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RESPOND BACK INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS
BY THE WEEKEND WITH HOT, DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE MODELS DO
HINT THAT THIS EASTWARD EXPANSION WILL BE RATHER LIMITED AS THE
UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO TRANSITION EASTWARD AND BECOMES CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CONUS. IF THIS DOES IN FACT OCCUR, IT
WOULD PUT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN AND
PERHAPS BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES AS WE GO INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER.
UNTIL THEN, A CONTINUATION OF HOT AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS MOVING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH A GUST
FRONT PUSHING MANY MILES AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS BRINGING SHIFTING
AND GUSTY WINDS, ALTHOUGH THE EFFECTS OF THIS GUST FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITH TIME. OTHERWISE APART FROM THE AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA BRING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 72 93 70 95 / 10 10 0 0
HOBART OK 71 96 69 98 / 20 20 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 73 99 71 100 / 20 20 0 0
GAGE OK 65 92 65 96 / 20 30 20 0
PONCA CITY OK 69 90 68 92 / 20 0 0 0
DURANT OK 73 99 70 98 / 20 10 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...26
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