804
FXUS64 KOUN 261704
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1204 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1204 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
- LESS HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.
A WEAK FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TODAY. MEANWHILE, A
SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER THE PANHANDLES WILL ALSO TRAVERSE ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE
EXPECTED AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. WILL
MAINTAIN A MENTION ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH
TEXAS FOR ANY POTENTIAL THAT WE MAY HAVE LEFT. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORM,
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE FRONT IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
OTHERWISE, IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, A SOMEWHAT COOLER AIRMASS WILL
FILTER IN WITH HIGHS ACROSS NORTHERN, CENTRAL AND INTO PARTS OF
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA IN THE 90S. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME
HEAT INDICES NEAR THE 105 THRESHOLD THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND THAT IT LOOKS
TO ONLY GET TO THESE LEVELS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO, WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WHICH WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES TO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WITH THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUATION OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ANOTHER "COOLER" DAY IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 90S FOR HIGHS.
BY LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK
EASTWARD RESTRICTING ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP TO OUR WEST
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST. THAT WILL ALSO PUSH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW FURTHER EAST AND BRINGING ANOTHER DRY PERIOD TO
THE ENTIRE AREA WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND STARTING FRIDAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
THE WARMING TREND THEN CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND AS TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT RETURNS TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY SEE THE RETURN OF
HEAT HEADLINES, AFTER A COUPLE OF SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYS, AS AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES ONCE AGAIN TOP 105 ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A TRANSITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE COUNTRY AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE
A GRADUAL PROCESS THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. SO OUTSIDE
OF FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA, WHICH MAY SEE SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES, THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH HIGHS EACH DAY OF 100-
105.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
MAINLY LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS, SOMEWHAT VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. LOW CHANCES
FOR POP-UP THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
THERE'S A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR AN MCS TO COME DOWN OUT OF KANSAS
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES AND PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA TOWARD EARLY
MORNING, BUT TIMING AND AREAL EXTENT ARE UNCERTAIN. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
DAY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 74 95 72 95 / 0 10 10 0
HOBART OK 72 96 70 98 / 20 20 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 73 100 72 99 / 10 20 10 10
GAGE OK 66 93 66 96 / 40 50 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 71 92 70 93 / 0 10 0 0
DURANT OK 73 99 72 98 / 20 20 20 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...14
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